Economic Report: CPI report shows headline inflation for September was hotter than forecast on rising shelter costs 

United States

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The numbers: U.S. consumer prices climbed 0.4% in September, the Labor Department said Thursday. While the pace is softer than the 0.6% gain in the prior month, it was hotter than forecast.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a 0.3% advance in September.

The rate of inflation in the 12 months ended in September remained steady at 3.7% rate from August. Economists were expecting a 3.6% increase.

The closely-watched “core” measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy rose 0.3 in September for the second straight month. That was in line with forecasts.

The 12-month core decelerated to 4.1% from 4.3%. That matched expectations.

Key details: Shelter costs were the largest contributor to the gain, accounting for over half the increase, the department said.

The cost of gasoline was another major contributor.

The energy index rose 1.5% over the month. The food index rose 0.2% for the third straight month.

The core was boosted by rent, hotels, motor vehicles and recreation. The index for used cars decreased over the month.  

Big picture: Inflation has come down sharply over the past year, but there is a sense that the last leg back to the Fed’s 2% target may be harder.

Economists still think the Fed will be on hold at their meeting in early November.

Market reaction: Stocks were set to open higher on Thursday while the 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 4.59%.