The index of leading economic indicators peaked in February 2022, recession warnings started appearing on Wall Street in the middle of last year, and the yield curve became inverted, for good, by July 2022.
And yet here we are, at the end of the second quarter in 2023, some 5 percentage of Fed rate hikes in the bag and a recession just isn’t here. The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for the second quarter is that GDP will grow a solid 1.8%.
Neil…