ONGC after Q2 earnings: Should you buy, sell, or hold the stock?

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The consolidated revenues at Rs 1,22,029 crore climbed 46 percent from Rs 83,619 crore recorded in the last corresponding quarter.

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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) share price rose over 4 percent in the early trade on November 15 after the company announced its September quarter earnings last week.

The state-run oil explorer and marketer reported a consolidated profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 18,749 crore, increasing 3.3x/234 percent from a PAT of Rs 5,675 crore in the corresponding quarter last year and higher by 174 percent from a PAT of Rs 6,847 crore in the preceding quarter.

The consolidated revenues at Rs 1,22,029 crore climbed 46 percent from Rs 83,619 crore recorded in the corresponding quarter last year. On a sequential basis, consolidated revenues are up 13 percent from Rs 1,08,136 crore reported in the previous quarter.

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Here is what brokerages have to say about the stock and the company after the September quarter earnings:

JPMorgan

The broking firm has kept the ‘buy’ rating on the company and raised the target price to Rs 212 from Rs 190.

The strong Q2, H2 should be even higher as higher gas and Brent crude prices flow through and the stock remains cheap even after the sharp run-up.

The broking firm increases FY22-23 estimates by 6-12 percent.

Nomura

The research firm has maintained ‘neutral’ call with a target at Rs 115 per share as Q2 EBITDA misses expectation, while new tax rate boosts the profit.

The production remains weak, while uncertainty remains over KG-98/2 ramp-up. However, as the oil prices edge higher in Q3, the gas prices are set for a sharper increase in FY23.

Motilal Oswal

ONGC is trading at 2.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA and 3.9x FY23E PE. “We value the company at 10x December 2023 adjusted EPS of Rs 16.2 and add the value of investments to arrive at target price of Rs 195,” it said. It kept the ‘buy’ rating on the stock.

Capex guidance for FY22 remains unchanged at Rs 295 billion.

Peak production at the KG Basin is expected at 14.5mmscmd/45kbopd for gas/oil. OPAL’s performance is steady, and ONGC is improving process efficiencies to keep its profits positive.

The upward revision in EPS comes amid the change in tax rate for the company (new tax regime).

Prabhudas Lilladher

“We increase our FY22-24 earnings by 35 percent /7 percent /1 percent to factor in (1) crude realisation of $ 70/bbl for FY22, (2) gas realisation of $ 2.62/4/4/mmbtu, and (3) tax write back, as the company moved to lower tax rate of 22 percent from the FY21 level,” it said.

Global crude oil prices recovered as OPEC countries managed production in a recovering economy. With domestic gas prices also set to revise upwards in FY23, ONGC remains on a strong footing.

“We had initially put the rating ‘under review’ after a sharp run-up in stock prices, but looking at its improving growth prospects, we assign ‘buy’ rating with a price target of Rs 210 based on 5x EV/E FY23.

At 9:23am, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation was quoting at Rs 160.75, up Rs 6.10, or 3.94 percent, on the BSE.

Disclaimer: The above report is compiled from information available on public platforms. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.