European Equities: GDP and Economic Sentiment Figures in Focus


Tuesday, 16th February

German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)

Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2nd Estimate

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2nd Estimate

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb)

Thursday, 18th February

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash)

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Friday, 19th February

French CPI (MoM) (Jan) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Jan) Final

French Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Prelim

French Services PMI (Feb) Prelim

German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Prelim

German Services PMI (Feb) Prelim

Italian CPI (MoM) (Jan) Final

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Prelim

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Feb) Prelim

Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) Prelim

The Majors

It was a relatively bullish start to the week for the European majors on Monday. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 rallied by 1.45% and by 1.32% respectively, while the DAX30 saw a more modest 0.42% gain.

Economic data from the Eurozone delivered mixed results, which left market optimism towards a speedy economic recovery to drive the majors.

The bullish sentiment towards what lies ahead supported the banking sector and commodities in particular.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Economic data included industrial production and trade data for the Eurozone.

In December, industrial production fell by 1.6%, partially reversing a 2.6% increase from November. Economists had forecast a 1.0% decline.

Year-on-year, production was down by 0.8%, which was worse than a forecasted 0.3% decline and November’s 0.6% fall.

According to Eurostat,

  • The production of capital goods fell by 3.1% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.6%.

  • Providing some support, however, was a 0.8% increase in the production of durable consumer goods, and 1% rise in the production of intermediate goods.

  • Energy production was also on the rise, increasing by 1.4% in the month.

  • Industrial production in Belgium fell by 1.9% to lead the way down.

  • Portugal (+1.8%), and Estonia and Luxembourg (both +1.6%) reported the largest increases.

  • In December 2020, compared with December 2019, industrial production was down by 0.8%.

While industrial production figures disappointed, trade data provided support to the European majors.

In December, the trade surplus widened from €25.7bn to €29.2bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to €25.3bn.

According to Eurostat.

  • Euro area exports to the rest of the world increased by 2.3% to €190.7bn compared with Dec-19.

  • This was the first increase in exports since Feb-20.

  • Imports from the rest of the world fell by 1.3% to €161.5bn, however.

  • Intra-euro area trade increased by 0.9% to €148.7bn compared with Dec-19.

  • In January to December 2020, euro area exports to the rest of the world slid by 9.2% to €2,131.4bn when compared with Jan-Dec 2019.

  • Imports from the rest of the world tumbled by 10.8% over the same period when compared with Jan-Dec 2019.

  • Intra-euro area trade fell by 8.9% to €1,797.0bn in Jan-Dec 2020 when compared with Jan-Dec 2019.

From the U.S

There were no material stats to provide the majors with direction later in the session with the U.S markets closed.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was mixed day for the auto sector on Monday. BMW and Volkswagen rose by 0.76% and by 0.66% respectively, with Daimler gaining 0.46%. Continental bucked the trend, however, with a 0.08% loss.

It was another bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank ended the day up by 2.02% and by 2.03% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a particularly bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose by 2.30% and by 2.02% respectively. Soc Gen led the way, however, surging by 6.46%.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault saw gains of 0.89% and 0.28% respectively.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE found further support, rising by 1.52% and by 1.58% respectively.

The stock of the day, however, was Vivendi SE, which surged by 19.62%. News of the group planning to list Universal Music Group and share 60% of the company’s share capital to shareholders delivered the upside on the day.

On the VIX Index

The U.S markets were closed for President’s Day

The Day Ahead

It’s a busier day ahead on the European economic calendar. Key stats include ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter are also due out for the Eurozone.

Expect both sets of numbers to draw interest later this morning.

From the U.S, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures will also draw interest late in the European session.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and news updates on vaccinations and COVID-19 will also need monitoring.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 186 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire