Under the most preferred scenario, India is likely to cross the critical thresholds of $ 5 trillion, $ 10 trillion and $ 20 trillion in market exchange rate terms in FY2028, FY2036 and FY2045, respectively.
India is expected to become the fastest-growing large economy with a gross domestic product (GDP) size of $ 26 trillion by 2047, according to a forecast by EY.
The ‘Big Four’ accounting firm also forecasts India witnessing a six-fold increase in its per capita GDP that would cross $ 15,000 by 2047, putting the country among the ranks of developed economies.
The report, India@100: Realizing the potential of a $ 26 trillion economy, was launched by Union railway minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland.
“In line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, India has commenced its journey into ‘Amrit Kaal’, a uniquely auspicious period, representing India’s opportunity to herald a new world era. There is an unparalleled impetus on developing world-class infrastructure supported by growth and investment-oriented policies and reforms to establish India as a manufacturing and technology hub,” Vaishnaw said.
“Over the next decade, India will not only be the fastest growing economy but will also play an integral role in leading the world into a sustainable future.”
The report states India would have a significant advantage owing to its strong domestic demand, digitalization, largest talent pool globally, financial inclusion, global competitiveness, and sustainability transition.
Macroeconomic stability, ease of doing business, power sector reforms and greater energy independence are key to economic resilience, it added.
The report also cites key enablers that will underpin the country’s development over the next 25 years that will unleash business opportunities across sectors and will significantly enhance India’s global competitiveness.
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It recommends ensuring macro-economic stability and resilience and continued thrust on reforms, which will be especially relevant in the backdrop of on-going geo-political conflicts, inflationary pressures and slowing global growth.
Using International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) medium-term projections and Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)’s long-term forecasts, EY has made projections under alternative assumptions covering the period FY2023 to FY2061.
Under the most preferred scenario, India is likely to cross the critical thresholds of $ 5 trillion, $ 10 trillion and $ 20 trillion in market exchange rate terms in FY2028, FY2036 and FY2045, respectively.
