ICICI Direct expect the dollar index surged 0.52% on Friday amid pessimistic sentiments in global markets and fears over geopolitical tensions between US and Russia over Ukraine issue. However, weakness in US 10 year treasury yields capped further gains in the dollar.
February 14, 2022 / 09:43 AM IST
Representative image
ICICI Direct’s currency report on USDINR
The dollar index surged 0.52% on Friday amid pessimistic sentiments in global markets and fears over geopolitical tensions between US and Russia over Ukraine issue. However, weakness in US 10 year treasury yields capped further gains in the dollar. Rupee February futures depreciated by 0.46% on the back of rally in oil prices and dollar strengthening. Further, sell off in domestic markets and disappointing manufacturing data from India weighed on rupee. The rupee is expected to depreciate further today, due to rising crude oil prices and stronger dollar. Additionally, risk aversion in the global markets may strengthen the dollar further. Inventors will now keep an eye on WPI inflation data from India. US$ INR (February) is expected to rise further towards 75.80 levels.
The Euro depreciated by 0.67% on Friday amid rally in dollar and selloff in the European markets. However, better-than-expected macroeconomic data from Germany prevented further downside in the single currency. The Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias on expectations of disappointing Industrial production data from Euro area. Further, pessimistic sentiments in the global markets and stronger dollar may continue to hurt the single currency. However, hawkish shift from ECB to tame the higher inflation may prevent further decline in the Euro. EURINR (February) is facing strong resistance at 86.05 level. As long as it sustains below this level, it is likely to correct further towards 85.50 level for the day.
Intra-day strategy
| US$ INRÂ February futures contract (NSE) | |
| Buy USDINR in the range of 75.48-75.50 | |
| Target: 75.80 | Stop Loss: 75.35 |
| Support: 75.35/75.20 | Resistance: 75.80/76 |
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