Brokerages expect HDFC Bank to return up to 32%; resumption of credit card issuance to aid margin recovery

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Emkay Global has a “buy” call on the stock, with a target of Rs 2,050, as it cites HDFC Bank’s proven track record in managing asset quality and ability to deliver superior return ratios

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HDFC Bank share price edged higher intraday on January 5 after Morgan Stanley maintained its “overweight” call on the stock, with a target of Rs 2,050, an upside of 32 percent from the current market price.

The global research firm is of the view that HDFC Bank’s initial update points to strong growth in loans and retail deposits. Loan growth was broad-based across its lending segments, it said.

The stock was trading at Rs 1,552.50, up Rs 24.10, or 1.58 percent, at 12.05 pm. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,553.50 and an intraday low of Rs 1,529.

According to Emkay Global Financial Services, the stock has underperformed by its own standards as well as that of the peers after the management change, more so due to the RBI’s embargo on its card, digital initiatives and Covid-induced growth and asset-quality disruption.

The risk of fresh Covid wave-induced lockdowns could once again disrupt business as well as asset-quality normalisation.

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The brokerage firm, however, believes that the bank has built reasonable Covid buffers (0.8 percent of loans) and should be relatively resilient.

After the recent correction, the stock is trading at a reasonable valuation (2.9x FY23/2.5x FY24 ABV).

“We have a buy rating on HDFC Bank with a target of Rs 2,050, given its proven track record in managing asset quality across cycles, strong franchise/capital profile, and the ability to deliver superior return ratios,” it added.

Domestic research and broking firm Motilal Oswal has also maintained a “buy” call on HDFC Bank with target of Rs 2,000 a share.

The research firm is of the view that the bank continued to deliver strong growth above the systemic growth, resulting in market share gains led by a healthy pickup across all segments.

The retail deposit trend was healthy, with the bank witnessing a sequential improvement in its CASA ratio to 47 percent, it said.

“Improvement in asset mix, robust CASA growth, and strong resumption in credit card issuances will aid margin recovery, which has been under pressure over the past few quarters. We maintain our buy rating with a target of Rs 2,000 per share (3.6x Sep’23E ABV for the core bank),” it added.

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