The fear index India VIX also spiked, hence volatility will remain on the higher side during this week as well
Sameet Chavan
October 04, 2021 / 07:15 AM IST
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Trading started on a positive note on September 27 owing to favourable global cues. The Nifty was about to clock a fresh high but modest profit- booking at higher levels pulled it lower. The next day, we witnessed some nervousness in the global markets which had a rub-off effect on Indian shares. The Nifty came off sharply to test sub-17,600 levels but also saw a sharp recovery towards the end to reclaim the 17,700 mark at the close. This was followed by some consolidation and again some weakness on the last day of the week as the Nifty ended below 17,600.
The Nifty finally snapped its recent winning streak as it ended nearly a couple of percent lower but September was a good month for the bulls as they added nearly 3 percent (month-on-month) to their kitty.
For the second half of September, we maintained a cautious stance and the market moved much more than we expected. In such a strong bull run, it may not be wise to be sceptical but with the kind of time-projections and negative divergence in momentum oscillators we are observing, we would continue with the same.
The market is over-stretched and can surprise us, hence we reiterate staying light. We have already witnessed a glimpse of this possibility this week, but structurally nothing has been dented yet.
As far as levels are concerned, the upside in the coming week seems capped and we do not expect the Nifty to go beyond the sturdy wall of 17,800–17,950. On the flip side, 17,450 and 17,300 are seen as key supports. First sign of weakness would be visible only after breaking this lower range.
The fear index India VIX has spiked. We expect volatility to remain on the higher side in the coming week as well. We advise traders to stay light and follow strict stop losses for existing positions.
We are also observing good stock-specific action in the market. One can continue following it but try to book timely profits as well.
Here is one buy call and one sell call for the next two-three weeks:
Kirloskar Ferrous: Bullish | LTP: Rs 257.45 | Stop Loss: Rs 241 | Target: Rs 284 | Return: 10.3 percent
Since early August, this stock has undergone a decent price and time correction. In the initial down move, the price retraced by 50 percent of its previous upmove and then slipped into consolidation mode.
After cementing its position around this key retracement level, the stock managed to give a decisive breakout from the recent congestion phase.
With this, we can also see prices traversing the key short- term moving average of ’89-EMA’ (exponential moving average) placed at Rs 245. Since the breakout has happened on sizable volumes, we recommend buying for a short-term target of Rs 284. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 241.
Tata Consultancy Services: Bearish | LTP: Rs 3,730.20 | Stop Loss: Rs 3,810 | Target: Rs 3,620 – 3,580 | Return: (3-4) percent
IT was one of the lead sectors to pull the market up from its lows of March 2020. In the last 15 – 16 months, this heavyweight basket has already given some mesmerising moves without a pause.
In the previous week, the Nifty IT index, however, nosedived from all-time highs and does not bode well for the bulls. Looking at the weekly candle of the index, we expect some correction in the near term.
As far as TCS is concerned, we see the price breaching the daily 20-EMA for the first time in recent months. This is coupled with a negative crossover in ‘5&20-EMA’, an indication of weakness in the near term.
One can look to sell with a strict stop loss of Rs 3,810. The immediate target can be seen in the Rs 3,620–3,580 range.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
