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ICICI Direct’s currency report on USDINR
The US dollar index rallied more than 0.5% after US Jobless claims dropped to 190k, suggesting strong job market. Further, rise in the labor costs raised the prospects of tighter monetary policy by the Federal reserve. The hawkish comments from the Fed member to keep lifting rates to rein inflation also supported the dollar to move back towards the 105 mark. Moreover, 2 year bond yields rallied towards 4.94,highest since July 2007, as the probability of rate hike mounted • The rupee future maturing on March 28 depreciated marginally to 82.72 amid weaker domestic markets and rise in dollar index • The rupee is expected to depreciate for the day amid rise in dollar. Further, expectation of better US service PMI numbers could also support the dollar to strengthen again. US$ INR is trading near the 50 day EMA support at 82.30. As long as it holds, the pair is likely to rebound towards 82.80. Only a move below the support of 82.30 would weaken the pair towards 82.10.
Intra-day strategy
| USDINR March futures contract (NSE) | |
| Buy USDINR in the range of 82.55-82.52 | |
| Target:82.78 | Stoploss: 82.40 |
| Support: 82.55/82.40 | Resistance: 82.78/82.95 |
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03032023 – currency –
