The Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives with more than 15 years of experience in the stock market believes the Nifty would certainly move towards the milestone of 19,000 first.
“As of now, we do not want to fall in the camp of sub-17000 expectations. Rather, in the worst-case scenario, we do not expect Nifty to slide below 17,400-17,300 in the near future,” Sameet Chavan of Angel One says in an interview to Moneycontrol. The Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives with more than 15 years of experience in the stock market believes the Nifty would certainly move towards the milestone of 19,000 first. “The timing is difficult to predict; but the probability is quite high, it should happen before the financial year ends.”
He feels the BankNifty has rock-solid support at 41,500, which is the previous breakout point. Hence, “Forget 40,000, we do not even expect it to slide below 41,500 at this juncture,” he says. Edited excerpts from the interview:
What are the key technical reasons that justify the current underperformance of the market compared to China?
It would be unfair to compare price action between our markets and China. Recently, they might have done well due to the opening up of the economy but broadly speaking, we have outclassed them to a great extent over the past two-odd years.
As far as ongoing underperformance is concerned, our markets are undergoing a time-correction phase of the larger degree uptrend and one of the heavyweight spaces IT is sulking for a long time. Therefore, we are unable to move higher from the consolidation range.
Do you see any possibility of the market falling below the 17,000 mark in the coming weeks or will the market get back to the 19,000 mark after Budget and earnings?
As of now, we do not want to fall into the camp of sub-17,000 expectations. Rather, in the worst-case scenario, we do not expect Nifty to slide below 17,400-17,300 in the near future. We would certainly vouch for a milestone of 19,000 first. The timing is difficult to predict but the probability is quite high, it should happen before the financial year ends.Will the Bank Nifty manage to hold the 40,000 mark in the coming weeks?
The banking space holds a lion’s share in pushing Nifty to its new high of 18,887 and we expect the outperformance to continue. In fact, if Nifty has to move towards 19,000, banking would remain in the driver’s seat. The BankNifty seems to have rock-solid support at 41,500, which is the previous breakout point. Hence, forget 40,000, we do not even expect it to slide below 41,500 at this juncture.Technically, are you getting any sign of a stellar run in the IT space in the coming weeks?
Honestly, we do not see any technical observation supporting a stellar run in the IT space. But we are of the opinion that the price disruption is already overdone and soon this underperforming space would find its mojo back.
Do you think the Metal index is going to see a big breakout in the coming days as it is near the record high now? If yes then will it move beyond the 8,000 mark in the coming weeks?
The metal space is known for its deceptive moves and it has proven it multiple times in the past. Recently with China’s reopening, ‘Metal’ (commodity) prices started surging again, which undoubtedly had a positive rub-off effect on all Metal counters. The chart structure looks promising and hence, we will not be surprised to see it extending in the near term. The only caveat would be to keep focusing on global developments and in case of any reversal, traders should be prepared to exit their longs.Do you see any chance of a big upside breakout in new-age companies like Paytm, Nykaa or PB Fintech?Relatively, all these counters are newly listed and do not offer long historical data to analyse their past behaviour and trend. Hence, we would hold our comments on these new-age companies.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
