Amit Jain is the Co-founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services
After an 18 percent rally from the June lows, Amit Jain of Ashika Global Family Office Services believes, the market will take a pause.
From here on, the Indian market will move in tandem with its global counterparts as all local events are almost done, argues the investment strategist seasoned in global capital markets and the BFSI industry.
At this moment, the co-founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services says, he is cautious about investing any fresh money in the market, rather he will book profits made in the last two months.
Jain, who has a keen interest in philanthropy and new-age start-up mentoring, sees BSE-listed firms market capitalisation to hit Rs 300 lakh crore when the Nifty surpasses its previous high of 18,600.
Do you really think the current sharp market recovery indicates that all the negatives and worst-case scenarios are fully priced in?
In my view, this recovery initially started as a short-covering around 15,200 and later after 16,600, it got the momentum as FII started buying again in the Indian markets after a very long time. The Nifty is hovering on 18,000 mark which is almost 18 percent up from its June lows.
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Most of the Q1FY23 results are out and the good news has been factored in at current levels. In my personal view, from hereon we will move in tandem with Global markets as all local events are almost done.
Do you think the market can rally by another 10-odd percent in the coming months, considering the changing environment?
After this 18 percent rally in the last two months, I believe, the market will take a pause. From now onwards global cues will decide the direction of markets.
At this moment, I am cautious about investing any fresh money in markets, rather I will book profits made in the last two months. Even if I have a compelling need to invest then I will follow a staggered approach of investment only in selected sectors & stocks.
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Do you think the expected good festive season demand is already discounted by the consumption stocks?
Not completely, but the stock price for consumption stocks will also move in line with broader market direction. We see some deep value in selected stocks in the consumption space.
Do you expect a strong margin recovery in corporate earnings in the second half of the current financial year?
Most likely, yes, as by December 2022, all supply side inflationary pressures should cool off globally. Once supply side bottlenecks settle, we will see margin expansion in most of corporate earnings from Q3FY23 onwards.
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Do you think the current rally can take the BSE market capitalisation to over Rs 300 lakh crore by Diwali?
We have already touched a new lifetime high Rs 280 lakh crore market cap in the passing week. As soon as Nifty surpasses its previous high of 18,600, then we will see this new magical number Rs 300 lakh crore as well. I wish by Diwali we may touch this new high, however I am more optimistic for this number by December 2022.
IT, the only sector, is a big laggard in the current calendar year. Do you expect significant contributions from the IT space from here on and is the right time to buy these stocks?
Yes, certainly we see a lot of value in select IT stocks across all market caps. This sector is still 24 percent down from its 52-week high. In my view, it is a great opportunity for long-term investors to start accumulating quality stocks in this space.
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