Marico shares under pressure after business update; global brokerages expect up to 26% upside

Stocks

The company’s revenue growth in January-March was in low single digit while volumes were marginally positive on an exceptionally high 25 percent base, which led to double-digit volume growth on a two-year CAGR basis.

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Marico stock is down over 2 percent in the morning session on April 6, a day after the company posted its business update for the January-March quarter.

Revenue growth in the quarter was in low single digit, while volumes were marginally positive on an exceptionally high 25 percent base, which led to double-digit volume growth on a two-year CAGR (compound annual growth rate) basis. The gross margin is expected to be similar to the same quarter last year.

With respect to one of the most famous brands of the company- Parachute- volumes were marginally lower year-on-year, mainly due to a daunting base of 29 percent. In fact, the second-largest player in the coconut oil segment Dabur managed to surpass Marico and expand its market penetration by 23 percent. Marico’s penetration has remained almost flat.

The Saffola franchise grew in high teens in value terms, while premium personal care posted broad-based double-digit growth. Digital-first brands Beardo and Just Herbs also performed in line with expectations, according to the company’s statement.

The firm said that consolidated revenue growth in the quarter has touched high single digit. Due to spike in edible and crude oil prices, the company also undertook calibrated price increases in value-added hair oils and Saffola edible oils portfolios during the quarter.

At 09:57 am, the stock was trading at Rs 528.00, down Rs 15.90 or 2.92 percent on NSE. It touched an intraday high of Rs 531.80 and an intraday low of Rs 518.95.

Global research and broking firm CLSA has maintained its underperform rating on the stock with a target of Rs 530. The brokerage feels that consumption was subdued amid weak rural sentiment and high inflation. Management expects high-single-digit topline growth with stable margin, it said.

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CLSA expects gross margin/Ebitda margin to be stable year on year and expects Ebitda growth of seven percent YoY adding that valuations look balanced at current levels.

On the other hand, Japanese research firm Nomura has maintained a buy call on the stock with a target at Rs 665, an upside of 26 percent from the current level. It is of the view that demand held up relatively well against a high base and weak consumption trends. Overall FMCG industry demand was subdued, impacted by persistent inflation. India volumes were marginally positive against industry volume decline in high-single digit in January-February, it said.

“We estimate consolidated January-March (Q4) revenue growth of 7.5 percent and Ebitda/profit growth of 9/5 percent YoY. We view Marico as a strong beneficiary of a resilient core and significant future growth vectors,” the brokerage added.

Macquarie has an outperform call on Marico with a target at Rs 600 per share, an upside of 13 percent from the current level . “Q4 update points to a broadly flattish profit and marginal volume growth in India. 10 percent plus international growth is offset by high ad spend. Calibrated price hikes helped maintain gross margin in Q4. We have cut FY22 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by four percent to factor in higher ad spend in Q4,” the research firm said.

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