HDFC twins merger may not free up enough FPI headroom for stock#39;s inclusion in MSCI indices

Stocks

The announcement saw shares of both HDFC and HDFC Bank soar on the bourses.

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The party on Dalal Street triggered by the announcement of the merger of HDFC with HDFC Bank could be short-lived given the potential of no entry for HDFC Bank in the MSCI index after the transaction.

In an exchange filing on April 4, HDFC announced that it will be merging into HDFC Bank to create one of the largest financial institutions in the country with a likely combined market capitalisation of more than Rs 12.5 lakh crore as of Friday’s closing.

The announcement saw shares of both HDFC and HDFC Bank soar over 15 percent at one point before losing a third of those gains at the time of writing.

The profit booking seen in HDFC Bank’s stock was likely triggered by a realisation that even after the merger the lender’s stock may not become part of the MSCI indices, which are tracked widely by foreign exchange-traded funds.

Currently, HDFC is part of MSCI indices whereas HDFC Bank is not because of the stock’s foreign ownership headroom failing to meet the MSCI’s 15 percent threshold.

“For a security that is subject to a foreign ownership limit to be eligible for inclusion in a Market Investable Equity Universe, the proportion of shares still available to foreign investors relative to the maximum allowed (referred to as “foreign room”) must be at least 15 percent,” MSCI’s website stated.

Brokerage firm Macquarie Securities India pointed out that even after the merger the headroom for foreign ownership in HDFC Bank would only be 10.58 percent, which is significantly lower than the 15 percent threshold.

After the merger, foreign ownership in HDFC Bank is likely to be 66 percent. The foreign investment limit in privately held banks is at 74 percent currently.

“To me, it looks like HDFC will get out of MSCI India as it merges into HDFC Bank and HDFC Bank will not get included in MSCI India as headroom is less than 15 percent,” the Macquarie dealer said.

The lack of inclusion of HDFC Bank into MSCI indices could become an overhang for the stock, some analysts said.