What should investors do with ITC post Q3 results: Buy, sell or hold the stock?

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The standalone revenue (excluding excise duty) came in higher by 32.5 percent at Rs 15,862.32 crore, compared to Rs 11,969 crore in the same quarter of the previous year

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ITC share price rose in the early trade on February 4, a day after the company came out with its December quarter earnings.

ITC, India’s largest cigarette manufacturer and an FMCG major, on February 3 reported a standalone profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 4,156.20 crore for the December quarter, up by 12.7 percent against Rs 3,687.88 crore reported in the year-ago period.

The company had reported a profit of Rs 3,697.18 crore in the September quarter.

The standalone revenue (excluding excise duty) came in higher by 32.5 percent at Rs 15,862.32 crore, compared to Rs 11,969 crore in the same quarter of the previous year.

Revenue in the quarter ending September 2021 stood at Rs 12,533.6 crore.

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Here is what brokerages have to say about the stock and the company post December quarter earnings:

Citi

The research house kept ‘neutral’ rating on the stock with a target at Rs 245 on the back of a steady Q3FY22 performance.

The cigarette volumes may have now fully recovered to pre-COVID levels, but some volatility due to COVID resurgence/restrictions can’t be ruled out.

No change in taxation in Budget 2022 is a positive factor.

Jefferies

The broking firm has maintained a ‘buy’ call and raised the target price to Rs 305 from Rs 300 as company reported a strong Q3 led by a beat in four out of five segments.

The cigarette volume growth at 12 percent a surprise, with 2-year CAGR at +2 percent. The input price inflation showed up as FMCG margin contracted, while hotels, paperboard and agri reported a strong YoY EBIT growth.

Jefferies raised EPS estimates by 2-3 percent.

CLSA

The brokerage house has reiterated the ‘buy’ call with a target at Rs 285.

The improvement in mobility aiding faster recovery and have seen a material topline recovery.

The improved mobility helped accelerate the recovery in cigarette volumes, while hotel and agri revenues doubled and paper showed 39 percent growth.

The FMCG business delivered 9.3 percent topline growth with 9.1 percent EBITDA margin and the company can further build on the volume growth trajectory in cigarettes.

The capital allocation concerns are progressively being addressed.

Prabhudas Lilladher

“We marginally tweak the FY23/24 earnings by 0.3 percent/0.7 percent given, (1) faster-than-expected recovery in cigarette business and (2) strong growth across agri, hotels and paperboard business despite margin setback in FMCG business,” the analyst firm said.

ITC InfoTech has reported 21 percent/48 percent growth in revenues/net profit for nine months in FY22 aided by improved business mix and higher productivity.

“We expect steady improvement in hotels profitability sans further severe COVID waves, although paper and paperboard margins have peaked out,” it said.

It has maintained the ‘buy’ call with an SOTP-based target price of Rs 284 on rollover (Rs 270 earlier).

Sharekhan

Cigarettes business sales volume are expected to improve in the coming quarters. ITC’s management has enhanced focus and redefined growth strategies for all its business vertical to improve growth prospects in the medium to long term.

Strong earnings visibility with improving growth prospects of core cigarette business and margin expansion in non-cigarette FMCG business and a high cash generation ability with strong dividend payout will reduce the valuation gap in the coming years.

“We maintain a ‘buy’ on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs 280,” it said.

At 9:18am, ITC was quoting at Rs 236, up Rs 1.70, or 0.73 percent on the BSE.

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