What should investors do with Avenue Supermarts post Q3 earnings: Buy, sell or hold?

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At the operating level, the company registered a strong 25.6 percent year-on-year growth in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) at Rs 868 crore in the December 2021 quarter.

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Avenue Supermarts share price gained in the early trade on January 10 two days after the company reported its December quarter earnings.

Hypermarket chain operator Avenue Supermarts on January 8 reported double-digit growth in earnings for the quarter ended December 2021, though the overall gross margins were a marginally lower due to mix deterioration.

The standalone profit for Q3FY22 grew 24.57 percent year-on-year to Rs 585.79 crore, and revenue from operations stood at Rs 9,065 crore, up 22 percent from Rs 7,432.7 crore a year ago.

At the operating level, the company registered a strong 25.6 percent year-on-year growth in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) at Rs 868 crore in the December 2021 quarter and reported an EBITDA margin at 9.6 percent for the quarter, up 30 bps compared to 9.3 percent in year-ago period..

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Here is what brokerages have to say about the stock and the company post December quarter earnings:

Jefferies

Jefferies has maintained underperform rating with a target at Rs 3,800 as the company reported an inline Q3 with revenue growth at 22% YoY.

The company’s gross margin dipped slightly due to adverse mix. Its store additions at 17, was multi-quarter high.

Broking firm has cut EPS forecasts by 3-9% to factor in covid-related issues.

Macquarie

Broking house Macquarie has kept outperform call with a target at Rs 5,450 as company’s Q3 profit was below estimate as adverse mix drives gross margin miss.

However, it is better positioned in an inflationary environment.

UBS

UBS has kept sell rating on the stock with a target at 3,500 as it was normalised quarter but headwinds were ahead.

The store disruptions, raw material inflation are likely to impact the performance, and scale-up of e-commerce business is a key watchout.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has upgraded the rating to equal-weight from underweight and kept target at Rs 4,338.

It like Dmart’s margin delivery despite deteriorating product mix, while Q3 earnings beat broking house estimate via better margin.

Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse has maintained underperform call with a target at Rs 3,600 on extremely stretched valuations.

It see moderation in growth rate from online grocery.

Motilal Oswal

We expect DMart to deliver an FY22E–24E revenue/PAT CAGR of 38%/46%, factoring in an 18% footprint addition.

The stock is trading at rich valuations of 72x/115x EV-to-EBITDA / P/E on FY23E, tracing the earnings growth trajectory. We maintain our neutral rating, with target price of Rs 4,500, valuing DMART on FY24E EV-to-EBITDA of 52x (a ~20% discount toits three-year average multiple).

At 09:17 hrs Avenue Supermarts was quoting at Rs 4,737.45, up Rs 6.60, or 0.14 percent on the BSE.

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