Shubham Agarwal
After a fall of more than 7 percent, a rebound from 16,850 gave some relief to the Nifty. The benchmark traded in the broader range of 17,515-16,850 after touching an all-time high of 18,594 in October expiry.
The Nifty took support around 16,850 and shut shop last week with moderate gains of 1.17 percent at 17,252.00. On the OI (open interest) front, long build-up was seen in the Nifty over the week gone.
Bank Nifty also witnessed consolidation. After a gain of around 0.54 percent last week, Bank Nifty closed around 39,353.50 and traded between 36,966 and 35,459 over the week. On the OI front, long unwinding was witnessed in the Bank Nifty over the week gone.
Diving into the Nifty upcoming weekly expiry, Call writers are showing aggressions by building more position compared to put writers.
For Nifty, the immediate resistance stands at the 17,500 levels where nearly 56 lakh shares have been added, followed by vital resistance at 18,000 with 60 lakh shares highest among all.
On the lower side, the immediate support level is at 17,200, where nearly 26 lakh shares followed 17,000 with an addition of 27 lakh shares.
Looking at the Bank Nifty upcoming weekly expiry data, on the upper side, immediate resistance stands at 36,500 (15 lakh shares) followed by 37,000 (17 lakh shares). Whereas, on the downside, 36,000 (11 lakh shares) stand at the immediate support level and followed by 35,500 (12 lakh shares) as the vital support level.
India VIX, fear gauge, decreased by 11.50 percent from 20.80 to 18.39 over the week. India VIX is trading near the lowest level of pre-COVID crash. Cool off in the IV has given relaxation to the market. Further, any downticks in India VIX can push the upward momentum in the Nifty.
Looking at the sentimental indicator, Nifty OI PCR for the week has increased from 0.727 to 0.914. Bank Nifty OIPCR over the week increased from 0.537 to 0.713, compared to last Friday.
Most of the sectoral indices have contributed positively such as IT and NBFC have collectively contributed nearly +180 in the Nifty’s 200 points gain. Whereas pharma and telecom together made up nearly 33 points on the negative side.
Looking towards the top gainer and loser stocks of the month in the F&O segment, we see Idea topping the gainers with over 22 percent rise, followed by Indiabulls Housing at 12.2 percent, and Metropolis at 9.4 percent. Delta Corp has lost over 14.1 percent, PI Industries 11.7 percent, and Reliance Industries 10 percent over the week.
Considering the bullish momentum along, this week can be approached with a low-risk strategy like Modified Call Butterfly in Nifty.
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