Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said they are cautious in near term because of over appreciation of the stock market during the last two-three months.
“Muted initial Q2 results, high cost of operation and inflation is disturbing the market momentum,” he said.
But, on a long-term basis, “We have a constructive view because Indian corporates will benefit a lot from the real growth of the economy and new reforms implemented. It will help the Indian stock market to sustain above the long-term average valuations,” said Nair who has rich experience in equity research.
Q: Morgan Stanley said India’s capex-to-GDP ratio is set to rise and employment prospects will be lifted. Do you feel so and why?
Demand is expected to flourish in both the domestic & global economy. Domestic demand will be supported by pent-up demand from corporates & households, start-ups, and fiscal spending from the government. Same factors will be applicable on global demand which in addition will benefit India through PLI schemes & China plus one strategy (manufacturing in India).
Q: What is your reading on September quarter earnings that have been announced so far? What are the top five companies that beat your earnings expectations by a wide margin and missed sharply respectively, and are you bullish on those stocks?
Result till date is a mixed bag and marginally below than forecasted. IT stocks started weak, but improved ahead with a rise in earnings forecast. Banks look promising but a bit early to conclude, and forecasts are good due to fall in provisioning and rise in leading.
Other sectors which depend on inputs like metals, crude, chemicals, and food grains are in a setback due to high cost & supply constraints. These stocks are getting impacted because they are trading at premium valuation. Such stocks have performed well during the last 2 quarters in anticipation of excellent results.
Q: Moody’s upgrades Indian banking system’s outlook to stable from negative. Does it mean that problems faced by banking system are behind now?
Yes, the worst is behind, and the asset quality of banks is improving. Legacy non-performing assets from the infra & core sector are being restructured & deterioration happened due to Covid-19 on loans being reduced.
The Indian economy is expected to be amongst the fastest growing economies in the world, which is expected to bring high leading growth for the banking sector.
Q: Do you think the BSE Sensex can fall below the 60,000 mark or can surpass the 65,000 mark by Diwali? Do you expect major correction, if any, in short term that can create panic among investors/traders?
It is too short a period to comment on the stock market moment. However, in the near-term we are cautious because of over appreciation of the stock market during the last 2-3 months. Muted initial Q2 results, high cost of operation and inflation is disturbing the market momentum.
Whereas, on a long-term basis, we have a constructive view because Indian corporates will benefit a lot from the real growth of the economy and new reforms implemented. It will help the Indian stock market to sustain above the long-term average valuations.
Q: Auto, Metal, Realty, Power and PSU stocks were the real stars in last one month, reporting double digit gains. Is it the time to turn cautious over these sectors?
Yes, in the near-term it will be challenging for these sectors to maintain their recent momentum. Over that we have a positive view on auto & auto ancillaries stocks which are focusing on growing electric vehicle business and have early player advantages. Similarly, we are also positive on renewable energy generation and product manufacturers.
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