Lupin shares crack 6% amid high selling pressure post Q1 numbers, brokerages remain mixed

Stocks

In 2021, the stock has gained 7 percent against a 14 percent rise in the benchmark Sensex

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The share price of Lupin fell more than 6 percent in the intraday trade on August 12 on BSE and looked on course to extend the losing run into the fourth consecutive session.

The stock is not witnessing a fresh wave of selling now. In fact, it has been in the red on a monthly basis since June 2021.

In the year 2021, the stock has gained 7 percent against a 14 percent rise in the benchmark Sensex.

Selling in the stock intensified after the company released its June quarter scorecard on August 10 after the market hours. The stock fell more than 6 percent on August 11.

The quarterly numbers were healthy but failed to meet market expectations due to a dip in the US sales and lower gross margin. The numbers also failed to impress brokerage firms who expressed mixed views on the stock.

The company’s standalone net profit came at Rs 645.87 crore in the June quarter of FY22, up 77.64 percent from Rs 363.58 crore in Q1FY21.

Revenue came at Rs 3,314.12 crore, up 22.97 percent from Rs 2,695.08 crore year-on-year.

Brokerages mixed

Brokerages expressed mixed views on the stock after the June quarter earnings.

Global brokerage firm CLSA has a “sell” call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 970. It has cut FY22-24 EPS by 3-11 percent.

“Initiatives for longer-term growth should lead to earnings rebound after three tough years. Execution track record has been patchy with 45-70 percent EPS cuts over last four years,” CLSA said.

On the other hand, Citi has a “buy” call on Lupin but cut the target price to Rs 1,270 from Rs 1,360.

Citi has also cut FY22, FY23 and FY24 EPS By 18 percent, 8 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

“We believe earnings have bottomed out with the decline in Famotidine. Sustained delivery on margin front is critical for the stock’s performance,” Citi said.

Domestic brokerage firm ICICI Securities has a “reduce” call on the stock with a target price of Rs 962.

ICICI Securities believes the US sales would remain under pressure and multiple ongoing USFDA issues would weigh on new approvals.

“The near-term outlook remains uncertain and we expect EBITDA margin to remain below 20 percent despite the focus on cost control initiatives,” the brokerage firm said.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has a “neutral” view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,040. “We lower our earnings estimate by 22 percent and 14 percent for FY22E and FY23E, respectively, factoring in (a) increased competition in g-Famotidine and pricing pressure in the base business, (b) the failure to supply products due to supply disruption on account of COVID, (c) the deferral of sales of certain products, and (d) reduced operating leverage,” the brokerage firm said.

It expects a 26 percent earnings CAGR over FY21–23E, led by a ramp-up in market share for g-Proair, new planned launches in the US in FY23, and an improving sales outlook in DF, especially in chronic therapies.

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