On the downside, we would turn cautious if prices break below 15640-15680 decisively. In that case, we can expect 15440 levels, which coincided with the Feb 2021 peak, says Jain
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The immediate upside resistance is around 15800 followed by 15900. If we are able to surpass 15900, the next levels would be 16150-16200, Anu Jain, Head-Equity Broking, IIFL Wealth said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand. Edited excerpts:
Q) A volatile week for India markets as Nifty broke below 15800 levels. What led to the price action?
A) In line with the movement in Asian and global markets, the Indian market saw some weakness. The appreciating Dollar has been negative for the Emerging Markets (EMs) in the short term.
Broadly, we have seen the index trading between 15640 on the downside, and 15900 on the upside, and until there is any further negative news, we expect the range-bound activity to continue.
The market would look forward to the Q1 earnings and CPI data during the week. The primary reason for the sell-off in the week gone by can be attributed to an early indication of the taper of Bond purchase programme besides the news of Chinese regulator imposing fines on a number of tech companies like Didi, Alibaba & Tencent.
Q) After the recent sell-off where do you see markets heading in the coming week? Which are the important levels to track?
A) On the smaller time frame, we have witnessed a range-bound consolidation between 15640-15900 levels with the interim rise in volatility within the narrow band.
However, the immediate upside resistance is around 15800 followed by 15900. If we are able to surpass 15900, the next levels would be 16150-16200.
On the downside, we would turn cautious if prices break below 15640-15680 decisively. In that case, we can expect 15440 levels, which coincided with the Feb 2021 peak.
Q) Small & midcap outperformed benchmark indices – what is leading to the price action and will the momentum continue if the tide reverse (US Fed minutes)?
A) The large caps, in general, tend to see more FII participation. Hence, we can expect some consolidation especially post the Fed meeting. However, the mid and smallcap activity is more domestic and HNI driven.
We believe from here on the action will get stock-specific. In the recent past, we saw a broad-based rally and that will now likely get restricted to quality and earnings.
Q) FIIs are net sellers so far in July in the cash market of the Indian equity markets. What has spooked them and it looks like much of the rally is led by DII and retail investors?
A) While FIIs may be net sellers, the money has also been flowing into primary issues. The domestic yields have shot up due to inflationary concerns.
A profit warning from Tata Motors and shortage of semi-conductors impacting auto companies and elevated valuations in some of the large caps have caused FII outflows.
Q) We are experiencing selloff on every rise towards 16000. Has the market turned from buy on dips to sell on rise?
A) We have yet not seen any major breakdown levels in individual sectors. Post a strong rise, we are seeing consolidation and call writing at higher levels. The 16000 mark is acting as a strong psychological hurdle as we approach closer.
We would subscribe to the view that it is a sell on rise market as it would be earnings’ dependent this month. Besides, 15440 is important support, and as long as it is protected, we would expect sideways to positive price action with strict levels.
Q) Sectorally, buying was seen in realty as well as banking stocks. What led to the price action?
A) With the reduction of stamp duty in select states, the sector has seen consolidation. Low mortgage rates and slow increase in prices of Real Estate projects with more focus on volume growth is likely to support demand.
Developers are also indicating that they intend to double their sales. On the commercial side, we are seeing some revival.
Q) Your top 3-5 trading ideas for the next 3-4 weeks?
A) Here is a list of recommendations for the next 3-4 weeks:
Torrent Pharma: Buy| LTP: Rs 3005| Target: Rs 3250| Stop Loss: Rs 2910| Upside 8%
The stock is making an attempt to move above the August 2020 peak of Rs 2,990 levels. On the upside, the current rally can extend towards Rs 3,250 levels with immediate support near Rs 2910.
Tata Steel Ltd: Buy| LTP: Rs 1239| Target: Rs 1330| Stop Loss: Rs 1220| Upside 7%
The stock has been in an uptrend and post a sideways consolidation, it is showing signs of momentum. In the range of Rs 1240-1220, one can initiate longs for the upside potential target of Rs 1330 levels.
DLF: Buy| LTP: Rs 300| Target: Rs 315| Stop Loss: Rs 287| Upside 5%
On the smaller time frame, prices have given a positive confirmation with a break above the falling wedge pattern. We can expect prices to test Rs 315 in the near term and from a medium-term perspective, it has upside potential for Rs 345 levels. On the downside, the stock has support at Rs 287 levels.
CESC: Buy| LTP: Rs 794| Target: Rs 860| Stop Loss: Rs 765| Upside 8%
The Daily & Weekly RSI has made a bullish range shift above 60 levels. Based on Fibonacci extensions, we expect the current rally to extend to Rs 860 levels with immediate supports placed at Rs 765.
Bharti Airtel: Buy| LTP: Rs 536| Target: Rs 548-565| Stop Loss: Rs 520| Upside 5%
The stock has been consolidating between Rs 520-565 levels. In Friday’s session, the stock witnessed positive momentum and on the upside, prices could mean revert towards the upper end of the range near Rs 548/565 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
