After The Bell: Nifty slips below 15,700; what should investors do on Monday?

Market Outlook

Indian market fell for the second day in a row on Friday pushing the Nifty50 below 15700 levels. The S&P BSE Sensex fell by about 200 points amid muted global cues and worries over the spread of the dreaded Delta variant of the coronavirus.

Let’s look at the final tally on D-Street – the S&P BSE Sensex fell 182 points to 52,386 while the Nifty50 closed 38 points lower at 15,689.

“The domestic market continued to be under the grip of bears following weak Asian peers as investor confidence was shattered due to the global spread of Delta virus variant. The equity market is turning risk-averse and side-lined,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services told Moneycontrol.

“The IT sector also turned bearish as the initial earnings results did not meet the expectations of the market. While the focus of domestic investors has shifted from secondary to attractive primary IPOs, affecting the liquidity of trading in the equity market which we believe to be short-term,” he said.

On the sectoral front, buying was seen in realty, metal, telecom, and healthcare while profit booking was seen in energy, banks, oil & gas, and IT stocks.

The S&P BSE Mid-cap index was up 0.6 percent, and the S&P BSE Small-cap index rose 0.39 percent – outperforming benchmark indices.

Here’s what experts suggest investors should do on July 12:

Expert: Chandan Taparia, Vice President | Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

The Nifty50 formed a Doji sort of candle on the daily scale as it closed near its opening levels but made a Bearish candle on a weekly time frame.

The index has got stuck in a wider range of 15450 to 15915 levels from the last 28 trading sessions and a decisive directional move is missing in absence of follow-up activities.

Now, Nifty50 has to cross and hold above 15750 zones to witness an up move towards 15850 and 15915 levels while on the downside support exists at 15600 and 15500 levels.

Mohit Nigam, Head, PMS – Hem Securities

Indian Benchmark Indices fell intra-day over half percent, tracking the decline in global peers amid concerns that the spread of covid variants could disrupt economic recovery but later recovered partially from the intra-day low mainly led by Metal and Realty stocks.

It is still a buy-on-dips kind of market so at the lower levels buying was seen that gave support to the market. Immediate support and resistance for Nifty 50 are 15,600 and 15,800 respectively.

Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

The Nifty50 tested the swing low of 15635, where the bulls rushed in to provide support. The daily lower Bollinger Band also restricted the downside for the index. The recent structure shows that the Nifty had taken a leap from the daily lower Bollinger Band post its previous decline.

The structure is similar in the current situation, thus suggesting a bounce hereon. Also, the index is trading close to the lower end of a reverse rising channel.

The presence of all these parameters on the downside indicates that the downside risk for the short term is limited to 15600-15550.

On the other hand, the Nifty can once again bounce back towards 15900, which will determine the larger upside potential to 16400.

Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments

The Nifty recovered from the lows of the day but is still stuck in the range of 15400-15900. The index will scale higher if we cross 15900.

The next target would be 16100. If we can keep above 15400 the overall trend of the market remains bullish. Hence it is imperative that the index does not break 15400 on a closing basis.

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