If you missed out on the 100-day rally from February 16 to May 28 (15,431- 15,469.65), there is nothing to worry. The momentum is likely to continue and the index could well inch towards 16,000, if key resistance levels are broken.
The 100-day rally caught most investors by surprise as COVID cases were seen inching higher. New cases reached a 4-lakh peak in May. They have since halved and are around 2 lakh cases on a daily basis now.
COVID cases peaked out around May 15, and, since then, bulls have taken control and pushed the market towards uncharted territory. Fall in new cases (unlock trade), strong March quarter results, a pickup in vaccination drive, and re-opening of global economies on the back of good recovery rates, all supported the sentiment.
“Of late, we have started outperforming global peers as COVID cases are seeing a declining trend and investors are hoping for an ease in restrictions and curbs by state governments,” Sacchitanand Uttekar, DVP, Technical (Equity), Tradebulls Securities, told Moneycontrol in an interview.
“Technically, the index has been progressing well towards the expected channel pattern target of 15,600, with its daily RSI at 66 & weekly RSI at 66, respectively, complementing further room on the upside,” he said.
Uttekar added that for the June series, the upmove above 15,600 towards 16,040 could be challenging, while 15,300-15,000 is expected to remain the key pivotal support zone.
Moneycontrol also spoke to various other experts and here are their projections for the Nifty index in the June series for the short term.
Mehul Kothari, AVP, Technical Research, AnandRathi
For the June series, we expect volatility to be back as, on the one hand, we are witnessing a sign of caution while, on the other, the larger trend is very strong and intact.
It would be a tug of war wherein both the bulls and bears would have their share. On the front of levels, 15,000 is a key support for the index, while on the higher side, 15,600-15,800 would be an intermediate resistance.
In the best-case scenario, we expect the markets to go beyond the 16,000-mark.
Aditya Agarwala, Senior Technical Analyst, YES Securities
The Nifty50 Index ended the May expiry on a strong note and a strong rollover suggests that the June series should play out well for the bulls.
Further, the index has broken out of a long consolidation, hitting new highs, which confirms more strength and higher levels in June.
Traders should watch out for the 15,450-15,470 level. If the Nifty keeps its head above this resistance, it will be on course to test the 15,780-16,220 levels. On the downside, 15,300-15,000 would be the key supprt level to watch for.
Ajit Mishra, VP (Research), Religare Broking
In case of any dip, the Nifty50 would find support around the 15,150-15,300 zone, while the 15,600-15,700 zone might act as a hurdle.
With markets at a record high, we feel it’s prudent to maintain a positive yet cautious approach and continue with the “buy on dips” approach.
Chandan Taparia, Vice President, Analyst, Derivatives, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
The Nifty50 has to hold above the 15,300 zone to witness an upmove towards a lifetime high on the 15,500-15,650 zone. Downside support exists at the 15,250 and 15,150 zones.
A bullish streak was seen in Reliance, L&TFH, Canara Bank, Grasim, ICICI Prudential, Adani Ports, PFC, RBL Bank, M&M, Indigo, REC Ltd, IDFC First Bank, MindTree, Colgate-Palmolive, and United Spirits.
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