Looking at the benchmark index, Nifty, we can expect it to move in a broader range of 14,500-15,000, said Karan Pai of GEPL Capital
Karan Pai
April 30, 2021 / 07:23 AM IST
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The Nifty50 on the weekly time frame has managed to breach above the 20-week SMA after witnessing a strong bounce from the swing low of 14,151 recorded on April 22.
On the options open interest front (May 6, 2021 expiry), huge participation and open interest addition are seen in the 14,500 Puts. On the call side, participation is seen in the 15,000 call contracts.
Thus, going ahead, we can expect the broader range of the Nifty to be 14,500-15,000. On the indicator front, the relative strength index (RSI) plotted on the daily and the weekly and Daily time frame can be seen moving higher as the prices move higher, indicating the presence of bullish momentum in the trend.
Going ahead, 15,000-15,050 will act as a key resistance level, and if the prices break above the 15,050 mark, we might see the index move higher towards the 15,292-15,300 (Resistance cluster level).
On the downside, the 14,624 (20-Day SMA) is the level to watch out for, if the index manages to move below this level, we might see the index move lower towards the 14,330 (23.8% retracement level of the rise from 10,790-15,431) mark and eventually towards the 14,151 (2-week low).
To sum it up, the index seems to have found support near 14,151 and is moving higher. The key level to watch for on the upside is 15,000-15,050. If this level is breached, we might expect further upside towards 15,292-15,300.
Our bullish view will be negated if the index breaches below the 14624-mark, beyond which we might see the index move lower towards 14,330.
Here is a list of top recommendations for the next 3-4 weeks:
JK Paper: Buy| Target: Rs 168| Stop Loss: Rs 131
JK Paper on the weekly time frame can be seen moving higher after a 7-week correction. Currently, the stock has managed to break above the 20-week SMA after bouncing off the Rs 125.20 level.
On the daily time frame, we can see the stock gained momentum and managed to move above the 20-day SMA on April 28, 2021. This up move was backed by volume, indicating participation as the prices moved higher.
On the indicator front, the RSI plotted on the daily and the weekly time frame can be seen moving placed above the 50 mark and moving higher, indicating the presence of momentum in the bullish trend.
Going ahead, the key resistance is placed at Rs 156 (38.2% extension level of the rise from 86.30-167 projected from 125), followed by 168 (Previous swing high) and eventually towards the 175 (61.8% extension level of the rise from 86.30-167 projected from 125).
The key level to watch for on the downside is Rs 131 (Weekly low) followed by 125 (Recent swing low). Looking at the prices action and the technical parameters mentioned above we expect the prices to move higher towards 156 followed by 168 and eventually towards 175.
The 131 is the level to watch for on the downside. If the prices manage to sustain below this level, we might see the stock move lower towards the 125 mark. One can buy the stock at current levels (143) with a target of 168 strict stop loss of 131 on a closing basis.
Axis Bank: Buy| Target: Rs 826| Stop Loss: Rs 680
Axis Bank seems to be moving higher after finding support near the Rs 626-630 mark. This up move is backed by rising volume, indicating participation as the prices move higher.
On the indicator front, the RSI plotted on the weekly and daily time frame can be seen moving higher, indicating the presence of momentum in the bullish trend.
Going ahead, we can expect the prices to move higher and test the 761 (multiple touchpoint level) followed by 826 (50% extension level of the rise from 400-799 projected from 626).
The key level to watch for on the downside is Rs 680 (20-day SMA) followed by 626 (recent swing low). The price action and the technical parameters mentioned above all point towards the possibility of the prices moving higher and testing the 761 marks, if the prices breach above this level, we can expect further up move towards 826.
Our bullish view will be negated if the prices move below 680. If the prices manage to sustain below this level, we might see the stock move lower towards the 626 marks.
One can buy the stock at current levels (708) with a target of 826 strict stop loss of 680 on a closing basis.
Aegis Logistics: Buy| Target: Rs 363| Stop Loss: Rs 290
Aegis Logistics for the past couple of weeks has been moving in a range. On the weekly time frame, we can see that the stock gained momentum and moved higher on 28th Feb 2021,
The prices breached and closed above the upper edge of the 6-week high. This up move was backed by above average volume, indicating participation in the up move.
On the indicator front, RSI plotted on multiple time frames is placed above the 50 levels and is moving higher, indicating the presence of momentum in the bullish trend.
Going ahead the key resistance is placed at 340 (Previous swing high), followed by 363 (78.6% extension level of the rise from 226-341 projected from 273).
The key level to watch for on the downside is 290 (multiple touchpoints) followed by 273 (Recent swing low). Looking at the prices action and the technical parameters mentioned above we expect the prices to move higher towards 340 followed by 363.
Our bullish view will be negated if the prices move below 290. One can buy the stock at current levels (313) with a target of 363 and a strict stop loss of 290.
(The author is a Technical Analyst, GEPL Capital)
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