Investors should remain stock-specific as volatility cannot be ruled out in the coming days due to the rise in COVID cases and possible lockdown in more states, say experts.
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The Indian market was in a tailspin on April 12 amid reports of a possible lockdown in Maharashtra and hardening restrictions in other states as coronavirus cases continue to surge to a new high in the country.
The S&P BSE Sensex crashed more than 1,000 points, while the Nifty50 declined more than 400 points, pushing the index below the crucial support placed at 14,500 levels.
Nearly Rs 7 lakh crore of investors’ wealth was wiped out in the first hour of the trade. As of 1050 am, the average market capitalisation of BSE listed companies fell to Rs 202.89 lakh crore (intraday), compared to Rs 209.63 lakh crore on April 9.
The latest data suggests that India recorded around 1.7 lakh new COVID cases in the last 24 hours. Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray has hinted at the imposition of a strict lockdown in Maharashtra, the worst-hit state, given the alarming rise in COVID-19 cases.
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Though a nationwide lockdown has been ruled out, the surge in COVID cases has increased the possibility of these restrictions being imposed by states, which can hurt the economic growth and earnings of India Inc.
“Domestic equities do not look to be inspiring at the moment. A sharp increase in COVID-19 daily cases in the country, which has crossed 1.7 lakh and the possibility of large economic restrictions are expected to keep investors nervous in the near term,” Binod Modi, Head Strategy at Reliance Securities told Moneycontrol.
Also read: Sensex, Nifty crack up to 3%; 5 factors that are spooking investors
“Further, the possibility of lockdown in large states like Maharashtra will weigh on investors’ sentiments. Additionally, recent weakness in INR may also aggravate investors’ concerns,” he said.
Given the experience in 2020 and the possibility of a further ramp-up in the vaccination rollout process, the spread of the virus can be controlled without large-scale economic damage and any near-term possible correction in the market should be treated as an opportunity for bargain trading, Modi said.
The Nifty is trading in the 14,500-14,900 range for the past couple of weeks and buyers have repeatedly shown their presence near the lower end i.e. near 14,450 to 14,500, which the index breached in the morning trade on April 12. The next big support for the index is placed near 14,000.
“The resistance of 14,950-15,000 has worked once again, this time fiercely! The markets have taken a severe U-turn and have tested the 14,300-14,400 support,” Manish Hathiramani, Proprietary Index Trader and Technical Analyst, Deen Dayal Investments, said .“For the markets to move up, we need to respect this support range and bounce up; 14,264 was the recent low recorded and if we break that, the next expected level is 13,900.”
Investors should remain stock specific as volatility cannot be ruled out in the coming days due to the rise in COVID cases and possible lockdowns in other states.
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Here is a list of 8 trading ideas from various experts for the next three-four weeks:
Expert: Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Senior Technical Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas
Lupin: Buy| LTP: Rs 1079| Stop Loss: Rs 1040| Target: Rs 1180| Upside 9%
The stock has broken out on the upside from a multi-week consolidation. The daily momentum indicator is in line with the price breakout. The rally is starting from the key weekly moving averages, so it is likely to sustain at higher levels.
IGL: Buy| LTP: Rs 542| Stop Loss: Rs 518| Target: Rs 594| Upside 9.5%
The stock is witnessing an inside bar breakout on the weekly chart, which is leading to a swift rally. On the way up, it has surpassed certain crucial swing highs. The short-term momentum indicators are in sync with the bullish structure.
Bharti Airtel: Buy| LTP: Rs 545| Stop Loss: Rs 523| Target: Rs 596| Upside 9%
The stock was in an accumulation phase throughout the month of March. In the last week, it has moved out of that accumulation.
Structurally, it is starting a fresh leg on the upside, which indicates a significant upside potential in the short term.
Expert: Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical & Derivatives Analyst at Angel Broking
Balrampur Chini Mills | Buy | LTP: Rs 234 | Target price: Rs 255 | Stop loss: Rs 213 | Upside: 9%
The tide has turned upwards for this counter as well as the cyclical commodity sugar after May 2020.
The stock has been witnessing an unstoppable steep rise for nearly 10 months and it is still not done yet.
In the week gone by, we saw yet another breakout after a recent congestion zone. On such breakout points, volume plays a vital role and in this case, we can see a sizable activity on the volume front, providing credence to the move.
We recommend going long around Rs 230–226 for a target of Rs 255 in the coming days.
Pfizer | Buy | LTP: Rs 4,830 | Target price: Rs 5,100 | Stop loss: Rs 4,550 | Upside: 6%
The entire pharma space underwent a decent time-wise as well as price-wise correction over the past two months.
After a brief pause, it seems to have resumed its larger degree uptrend.
Most of the bigger names from this space have already moved quite well in the last five–six trading sessions but Pfizer remained quiet all this while.
On April 9, the stock finally took off to come out of its recent consolidation range. In this process, it managed to convincingly traverse two key moving averages—89-day exponential moving average (DEMA) and 200-day simple moving average (DSMA) along with more than average daily volumes.
We recommend going long on a small dip towards Rs 4,750 for a target of Rs 5,100.
Bajaj Finance | Sell | LTP: Rs 4,878 | Target price: Rs 4,600 | Stop loss: Rs 5,010 | Downside: 6%
The financial space has been the real drag for the last one-and-a-half month.
For the last few days, this stock has been hovering around its 89-day exponential moving average on the daily chart.
Last Friday, the stock failed to hold its support as we witnessed a decisive breakdown below Rs 4,900.
Looking at this price development, further weakness in the coming days cannot be ruled out.
Brokerage: SMC Global Securities Ltd
Gujarat Gas: Buy| LTP: Rs 568| Target: Rs 630| Stop Loss: Rs 520| Upside 11%
The stock made a 52-week low at Rs 226.10 on April 13, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs 580.50 on April 9, 2021. The 200 DEMA of the stock on the daily chart is at Rs 383.02.
The short, medium and long-term biases are looking positive as the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts.
Apart from this, the stock has formed a “Bull Flag” pattern on the weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, the stock gave a pattern breakout by registered gains of around 4 percent and also managed to close above the same.
Therefore, one can buy in the range of Rs 555-560 for the upside target of Rs 610-630 and a stop loss can be placed below Rs 520.
Tech Mahindra: Buy| LTP: Rs 1052| Target: Rs 1180| Stop Loss: Rs 960| Upside 12%
The stock made a 52-week low of Rs. 490 on May 6, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1081.55 on April 9, 2021. The 200 DEMA of the stock on the daily chart is at Rs. 878.93.
As we can see on charts, the stock has consolidated in a broader range of 920-1035 for a few weeks and has formed a “Continuation Triangle” pattern on the weekly charts, which is bullish in nature.
Last week, the stock went up by over 6 percent and conclusively gave the pattern breakout along with high volumes and closed at weeks high, so buying momentum may continue for the coming days.
Therefore, one can buy in the range of Rs 1,020-1,035 for an upside target of Rs 1,150-11,80 with a stop loss below Rs 960.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
