The rise in inflation recorded for February as well as a contraction in IIP for January could weigh on markets this week but the broader trend still remains on the upside, suggest experts
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The Indian market is just shy of new record highs, but experts feel that the journey will not be smooth from here on. The Nifty50 is just 2.6 percent away from the record high of 15,431 recorded on February 16, 2021.
Profit booking at higher levels, fresh cases of Covid in March in various parts of India, and volatility in US Bond Yields resulted in fluctuations in Indian markets during the week ended March 12.
The rise in inflation for February as well as a contraction in IIP for January could weigh on markets this week but the broader trend still remains on the upside, suggest experts.
The index briefly closed below its 5-day exponential moving average (EMA), placed at 15,056, on Friday, but a strong closing seen in the US market on optimism after a $ 1.9 trillion recovery package was signed into law could support bulls on dips.
“The way the market is getting bought into at every dip, hitting a new high is very much a possibility in the medium term but sustaining the highs could be a challenge in the short term,” Nirali Shah, Head – Equity Research, Samco Securities, told Moneycontrol.
“As there is some pressure at the immediate resistance for the Nifty which is now in a narrow range of 14,850 to 15,270, any decisive break of this range on the upside could take the markets higher,” she said.
Experts advise investors to wait for a breakout above 15,250 to deploy fresh longs, while a break below 14,850-14,800 could accelerate the selling pressure.
“If bears manage to push the index below 14,950-14,850, profit booking could extend to levels of 14,700, that being the 50-DMA (day moving average),” Aditya Agarwala, Senior Technical Analyst, YES Securities, told Moneycontrol.
“On the flip side, if bulls manage to take the Index beyond 15,250-15,300, then a fresh-up move would be triggered to new highs beyond 15,430,” he said.
Benchmark indices are likely to consolidate but the big action will be seen in the small & mid-cap space, suggest experts.
“As long as the Nifty holds itself above the level of 14,800, the near-term trend appears to be bullish. We expect the small and mid caps to outperform the large caps this calendar year if the prevalent liquidity continues,” Likhita Chepa, Senior Research Analyst at CapitalVia Global Research Limited, told Moneycontrol.
“The key to profits would lie in the stock selection. One should be prepared for possible intermittent corrections in the near term. Investors can consider looking at a bottom-up approach before placing their bets,” she said.
Here is a list of top trading ideas by experts for the next 3-4 weeks. The returns are calculated based on the last closing price as on March 12:
Expert: Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical & Derivatives Analyst at Angel Broking
Delta Corp | Buy | LTP: Rs 187.50 | Target price: Rs 224 | Stop loss: Rs 163 | Upside: 19%
The stock has seen a spectacular recovery since March 2020 lows. Especially in the last few weeks, it has gained tremendous momentum.
On the monthly chart, it has come out of the bear phase after a long time. We can see prices convincingly traversing and staying beyond the 89-day EMA level of Rs 148 for the first time since February 2020.
If we take a glance at the lower timeframe chart, we can see prices rapidly moving higher along with sizable volumes.
Any decent price decline would be a great opportunity to accumulate this stock.
SBI | Sell | LTP: Rs 381.10 | Target price: Rs 358 | Stop loss: Rs 394 | Downside: 6%
The larger picture still remains bullish for the stock but with a short-term view, it seems to have lost its momentum.
Last Friday, the stock closed below 20-day EMA for the first time in the recent past. On the hourly chart, we can see prices sliding below 200-day SMA which we believe is a sign of weakness.
Hindalco Industries | Sell | LTP: Rs 331.50 | Target price: Rs 310 | Stop loss: Rs 341 | Downside: 6%
For Hindalco, profit booking happened precisely after reaching a key Fibonacci ratio of 161 percent (golden ratio) placed around Rs 350.
On the daily chart, we can see prices closing convincingly below the 5-day EMA along with a bearish crossover in the RSI-smoothened oscillator.
Due to the previous week’s late correction, the weekly chart depicts a shooting star pattern, which has confirmed due to Friday’s correction.
Expert: Likhita Chepa, Senior Research Analyst at CapitalVia Global Research Limited
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Buy above Rs 948| LTP: Rs 938| Target: Rs 1020| Stop Loss: Rs 890| Upside 8%
This stock has given a trend line breakout on its daily charts and is facing resistance near Rs 948. It is taking the support of its important moving averages and indicating bullish strength on its weekly charts.
Going forward, any breakout above the level of 948 would add upward momentum to the stock. We recommend initiating a long position on the stock above 948 with a stop loss of 890 and a target of 1,020.
Expert: Aditya Agarwala, Senior Technical Analyst, YES SECURITIES
Birlasoft: Buy| LTP: Rs 244| Target: Rs 300| Stop Loss: Rs 215| Upside 22%
The stock has resumed its uptrend after taking support at the 20-WMA and a trendline formed joining previous highs. The RSI too has formed a higher low above the level of 40, suggesting a range shift in favour of the bulls.
CSB Bank: Buy| LTP: Rs 265| Target: Rs 320| Stop Loss: Rs 235| Upside 20%
The stock has witnessed extremely high volumes in the recent bull candles breaking out of a consolidation phase to resume its uptrend.
Further, a sustained trade above 266 will extend the upmove to the 320 level and RSI is also in the bull territory affirming the same.
Cyient: Buy| LTP: Rs 679| Target: Rs 780| Stop Loss: Rs 625| Upside 14%
The stock is on the verge of a breakout from an Ascending Triangle pattern consolidation neckline placed at 681. A successful breakout on volumes will take the stock higher, towards the 780 level.
Volumes have been encouraging in the recent bull candles, suggesting bullishness and a breakout in the cards.
Power Grid: Buy| LTP: Rs 220| Target: Rs 250| Stop Loss: Rs 210| Upside 14%
The stock has resumed its uptrend after testing the trendline support. Further, RSI has also cooled off from the overbought territory suggesting there is room for a fresh up move.
Brokerage: SMC Global Securities Ltd
Power Finance Corp: Buy| LTP: Rs 137| Target: Rs 155| Stop Loss: Rs 124| Upside 13%
The stock closed at Rs 137.70 on March 12, 2021. It made a 52-week low at Rs 74.15 on May 27, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs 140.50 on March 12, 2021. The 200–Days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently placed at Rs 108.71.
Short-term, medium-term, and long-term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows.
Apart from this, it has completed the “W” Pattern on the monthly charts and has given the breakout of the pattern along with high volumes, and has closed above the same.
It is expected that buying momentum may continue in the coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 133-135 for the upside target of 150-155, and a stop loss below Rs 124.
Tech Mahindra Ltd: Buy| LTP: Rs 1003| Target: Rs 1090| Stop Loss: Rs 930| Upside 9%
The stock closed at Rs 1,003.25 on March 12, 2021. It made a 52-week low of Rs 71.40 on March 23, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs 1,081.55 on January 11, 2021.
The 200-Days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 839.22.
After registering a yearly high, the stock took a pause and consolidated in a narrow range with a positive bias. Moreover, the stock has formed a “Bull Flag” pattern on the weekly charts, which is bullish in nature.
Last week, the stock gave the pattern a breakout by registering gains over 4.5 percent and also has managed to close above the same.
So, a further upside is expected from the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 985-990 levels for the upside target of 1,080-1,090 with a stop-loss below 930.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
