The Nifty could test the 50-DMA placed at 14,585 and if it slips, then it can fall to 13,000-13,600 range. The tone of the market seems to be on the downside for now, say experts.
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A volatile week for Indian markets but a bounce back from the lows suggests that the bulls have not given up yet and it is still a buy-on-dips market.
The S&P BSE Sensex breached the 50,000-mark briefly but the bulls managed to push the index back above 50K towards the close of the week but the Nifty50 couldn’t hold on to 15,000 levels on a weekly basis.
Global cues largely dominated the price action on Dalal Street. During this week, crude oil prices, dollar index, US treasury yields, which have been rising, and key domestic macro data like CPI, WPI, and IIP would be on investors’ radar.
From a technical perspective, the outlook will remain on the upside as long as the Nifty holds on to 14,585-14,800 levels. On the upside, 15,150-15,250 are likely to act as stiff resistance.
“The dollar index has also moved up from 90 to around 92 level, which is seen negative for emerging market currencies and also equities. In the absence of any major domestic trigger, Indian markets could take a cue from global developments and US markets,” Rusmik Oza, Executive Vice President, Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities told Moneycontrol.
The Nifty could test the 50-DMA placed at 14,585 and a slip would see it slide to 13,000-13,600 range. “The tone of the market seems to be on the downside for now,” he said.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Senior Technical Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said on the upside, 15,000-15,050 would be the immediate hurdle zone to watch out for.
“Once that gets taken out, the index will be set to test the swing high of 15,273. On the other hand, 14,860-14,800 will act as a crucial support zone for the index,” he said.
Here is a list of top 10 trading ideas from different experts for the next three-four weeks:
Expert: Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, CapitalVia Global Research Ltd
InterGlobe Aviation Limited: Buy| Trigger Price: Rs 1790| Target: Rs 1,880| Stop Loss: Rs 1700| Upside 5%
The stock is looking bullish on the daily chart, as it is consolidating at its prior major resistance placed at 1,790. Breaking the level might lead to a decent upside from current levels.
The trend indicator ADX is also pointing to the start of a new bullish trend during the week.
Indian Oil Corporation: Buy| Trigger: Rs 104| Target: Rs 112| Stop Loss: Rs 99| Upside 7.4%
The stock is consolidating near its resistance level in the weekly charts that is placed at 104, expecting a bullish rally during the week. The stock action is supported by trend indicator ADX, which is indicating bullish momentum.
Endurance Technology: Buy| Trigger price Rs 1415| Target: Rs 1500| Stop Loss: Rs 1374| Upside: 6%
The stock is sustaining above its critical 40-day exponential moving average (DEMA) which might act as a strong support zone placed at 1,380. If it sustains above 1,415, it might lead the stock to positive momentum.
The stock has seen significant addition of volumes in recent days. The risk and reward are favourable at this juncture.
Expert: Sameet Chavan, Chief Technical & Derivatives Analyst at Angel Broking
IndusInd Bank | LTP: Rs 1,039.90 | Target price: Rs 960 | Stop loss: Rs 1,085 | Downside: 8%
This stock has been one of the outperformers in the financial space for the last few months. For a week or so, the stock has been struggling to surpass Rs 1,100–1,120 levels.
A failure to go beyond these levels, despite several attempts, eventually resulted in a decent profit-booking on March 5 along with the broader market correction.
One day’s fall in prices cannot be construed as a complete trend reversal but on the lower timeframe chart, we can see a range breakdown in prices.
Hindalco Industries | LTP: Rs 337.85 | Target price: Rs 319 | Stop loss: Rs 348 | Downside: 6%
Commodities across the globe have been enjoying a strong bull run for the past six months.
In the previous week, we witnessed some healthy corrections in metal prices after a long time. This had a rub-off effect on the metal counters.
For Hindalco, this profit-booking happened after reaching a key Fibonacci ratio of 161 percent (golden ratio) placed around Rs 350.
On the daily chart, we can see prices closing convincingly below 5-day EMA along with a bearish crossover in the RSI-smoothened oscillator.
Also, due to late correction, the weekly chart depicts a shooting star pattern, which does not bode well for the bulls.
Brokerage: SMC Global Securities
Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd: Buy| LTP: Rs 1633| Target: R 1780| Stop Loss: Rs 1560| Upside 9%
The stock closed at Rs 1633.90 on March 5. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1,065 on March 19, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs 1,676 on January 11, 2021.
The 200-DEMA of the stock on the daily chart is at Rs 1,495.65.
As we can see on charts, the stock is trading in higher-highs and higher- lows sort of rising wedge on weekly charts. Moreover, the stock has consolidated in a narrow range and formed a “Bullish Pennant” pattern, which is considered bullish.
Last week, the stock had a breakout by registering gains of more than 3 percent and also managed to close above the breakout levels. So buying momentum may continue for the coming days.
One can buy in the range of 1,610-1,615 for an upside target of 1,750-1,780 with a stop loss below 1,560.
SBI Life Insurance Company: Buy| LTP: Rs 903| Target: Rs 990| Stop Loss: Rs 860| Upside 9.6%
The stock closed at Rs 903.55 on March 5. It made a 52-week low of Rs 519.40 on March 19, 2020, and a 52-week high of Rs 954.50 on January 8, 2021.
The 200-DEMA of the stock on the daily chart is at Rs 850.25. Short, medium and long-term bias is looking positive, as the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts.
The stock has also formed a “Continuation Triangle” on the weekly chart, which is bullish in nature.
In the previous week, stock tried to give the breakout of the same but could not hold high levels due to a correction in broader indices but managed to close in green with over 4 percent gains.
So, more upside is expected from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 890-895 for an upside target of 970-990 with a stop loss below 860.
Expert: Mehul Kothari, AVP – Technical Research at AnandRathi
Maruti Suzuki: Buy| LTP: Rs 7247| Stop Loss: Rs 6820| Target: Rs 8000| Upside 10%
Maruti corrected from 8,300 and slipped below the 7,000-mark recently. It found support near the 6,800, which was the placement of its 200-day SMA.
We witnessed some bullish price action around the crucial support and the stock is now again near 7,200. The support near 7,000 also coincides with the extension of a long-term breakout.
The convergence of all the supports at similar levels makes the risk-reward lucrative to go long. Traders are advised to buy the stock in the range of 7,240-7,200 with a stop loss of 6,820 for an upside potential target of 8,000 in the next three to five weeks.
HUL: Buy| LTP: Rs 2200|Stop Loss: Rs 2080| Target: Rs 2380| Upside: 8%
Recently, the stock corrected from the peak of 2,450 and is now trading near 2,200. The stock is hovering at the placement of 200-DEMA and 200-day SMA which might act as a buying zone.
Further, the support coincides with the placement of a long-term rising trend line. In addition, the stock has the support of Ichimoku Flatline at current levels.
The convergence of all supports at similar levels makes the risk-reward lucrative to go long. Thus, traders are advised to buy the stock in 2,200-2,180 range with a stop loss of 2,080 for the upside potential target of 2,380 in the next three to five weeks.
Piramal Enterprises: Sell| LTP: Rs 1924| Stop Loss: Rs 2025| Target: Rs 1800| Downside: 6%
In the month of February, Piramal Enterprises (PEL) rallied from the lows of 1,300 towards the recent high of 2,007. This has brought it into an overbought zone on a daily scale.
The level of 2,000 has acted as a supply zone for the stock in the past few instances. The 20,00-mark is also the placement of 200-SMA on the weekly time frame and that could be a very strong hurdle.
Technical evidence indicates that the stock is poised for a considerable correction after the relentless run-up.
Thus, we advise traders to sell the stock only on the bounce in the 1,940-1,960 range, with a stop loss of 2,025 for a downside target of 1,800 in the next three to five weeks.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
