Tuesday, 23rd February
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jan) Final
Wednesday, 24th February
German GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2nd Estimate
German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2nd Estimate
Thursday, 25th February
GfK German Consumer Climate (Mar)
Friday, 26th February
French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan)
French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2nd Estimate
Spanish HICP (YoY) (Feb) Prelim
Spanish CPI (YoY) (Feb) Prelim
The Majors
It was a bearish start to the week for the European majors on Monday. The EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.4%, with the CAC40 and the DAX30 seeing losses of 0.11% and by 0.31% respectively.
Positive economic data from Germany failed to reverse losses for the DAX30 on the day. Market jitters over rising inflationary pressures had weighed on the majors through the early part of the European session.
Late in the European session, however, ECB President Lagarde eased market tension. The ECB President stated that the ECB was monitoring rising borrowing costs. For the European majors, the comments were enough to support a partial recovery of the day’s losses.
The Stats
It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar on Monday. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index and sub-index figures were in focus.
In February, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose from 90.3 to 92.4. Economists had forecast an increase to 90.5.
An improvement in both current sentiment and business expectations supported the pickup in the Business Climate Index.
The Business Expectations sub-index rose from 91.5 to 94.2, with the current assessment sub-index increasing from 89.2 to 90.6. Both came in ahead of forecasts.
According to the February survey,
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In manufacturing, the index jumped to its highest level since Nov-2018. The Business Climate Index rose across all major branches of industry.
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There was also a pickup in the service sector Business Climate Index. Service sector firms were more satisfied with their current situation and less pessimistic about the future.
From the U.S
It was a particularly quiet day on the economic data front, with no material stats for the markets to consider.
The Market Movers
For the DAX: It was another mixed day for the auto sector on Monday. Volkswagen and Continental rose by 0.99% and by 1.59% respectively, while BMW and Daimler fell by 0.53% and by 0.40% respectively.
It was also a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rallied by 2.85%, while Commerzbank fell by 1.13%.
From the CAC, it was a bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen rose by 2.02% and by 1.74% respectively, with Credit Agricole gaining by 1.15%.
It was a bearish day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV fell by 1.35%, with Renault sliding by 3.02%.
Air France-KLM and Airbus SE ended the day with gains of 1.32% and 4.39% respectively.
On the VIX Index
It was back into the green for the VIX on Monday, marking a 4th daily gain in 5 sessions. Reversing a 1.96% decline from Friday, the VIX rose by 6.35% to end the day at 23.45.
The Dow rose by 0.09%, while the NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 2.46% and by 0.77% respectively.
The Day Ahead
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Finalized January inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out this afternoon.
Barring any deviation from prelim figures, however, the numbers are unlikely to have an impact on the European majors.
With market jitters over inflationary pressures hitting the majors, the ECB President’s comments from Monday will likely mute the impact of any upward revisions.
From the U.S, consumer confidence figures for February will influence late in the session.
Late in the session, FED Chair Powell testimony will also draw plenty of interest. Following Lagarde’s comments on Monday, Powell may also address market concerns.
Away from the economic calendar, U.S stimulus updates will also need monitoring. On Monday, the House of Representatives Budget Committee reportedly approved Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package. The full house vote is due to take place this week.
The Futures
In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 58 points.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire