Reduce Jubilant FoodWorks; target of Rs 2500: HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities recommended reduce rating on Jubilant FoodWorks with a target price of Rs 2500 in its research report dated February 22, 2021.

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HDFC Securities’ research report on Jubilant FoodWorks

Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) announced the acquisition of Fides Food Systems Coöperatief U.A., Netherlands (Fides) for GBP 24.8mn (INR 2.5bn). Fides is the beneficial owner of 32.81% of equity shares of DP Eurasia N.V. (DP Eurasia). DP Eurasia is the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino’s Pizza brand, having 771 stores in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. It is listed with London Stock Exchange PLC. DP Eurasia has weak financials (due to operational losses in ex-Turkey, financial leverage and currency impact) resulting in a crack in its stock price over the past 3 years (GBX 250 in 2018 to GBX 70 now). The deal is valued at 8x EV/EBITDA of CY19. Although this deal seems to be financially neutral in the medium term, it offers more strategic rationale for JFL. The most interesting aspects of this deal are (1) attractive valuation, (2) potential to revive loss making business, (3) JFL’s expertise in running Domino’s vs. P/E player, (4) stronger global footprint (control of >2,000 Domino’s stores, second highest to Domino’s Australia), and (5) synergy in terms of technology, sourcing, etc. JFL management is consistently seeking an ‘out of the box’ approach to add growth levers. The company has already added more legs of growth in the existing business in terms of Hong’s, Domino’s Bangladesh, and Ekdum!, and is ambitious for a faster store opening for Domino’s. Considering its strong FCFs, reinvestment spree was always on cards, which is why the stock has seen this rerating. Capital allocation is a more critical aspect as we have noticed that many companies have de-rated after wrongly allocating capital. Considering DP Eurasia will continue with the existing management, it would not consume JFL’s management bandwidth for operations.

Outlook

We continue to believe that most near to medium term drivers are priced in. However, on account of expected aggressive store expansion in India, we increase our EPS by 3% for FY22/23. The stock is valued at 81 and 65 P/E on FY22/FY23 EPS. We increase our target multiple to 55x P/E (50x earlier) and derive TP of Rs 2,500. We maintain our REDUCE rating. JFL is a far superior company among QSR peers but we see earnings surprises more for other discretionary companies (driven by pent-up, market share gain, pricing, sourcing advantage, make in India etc).

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