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WTO sees #39;ugly#39; trade plunge, likely worse than financial crisis

April 08
23:29 2020

The World Trade Organization on Wednesday forecast that goods trade would shrink more steeply this year than in the global financial crisis a decade ago before rebounding in 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes – if countries worked together.

The WTO said global trade would fall this year by between 13 percent and 32 percent, giving a wide range because so much about the economic impact of the health crisis was uncertain.

“These numbers are ugly – there is no getting around that,” WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said in a statement.

“But a rapid, vigorous rebound is possible. Decisions taken now will determine the future shape of the recovery and global growth prospects.”

Keeping markets open and predictable, he said, would be critical to spurring renewed investment. Countries working together would see a faster recovery than if each country acted alone.

The Geneva-based WTO said that for 2021 it was forecasting a rebound in global goods trade of between 21 percent and 24 percent, depending largely on the duration of the coronavirus outbreak and the effectiveness of policy responses.

The WTO also confirmed that 2019 had ended on a sombre note, with a 0.1 percent decline in goods trade, weighed down by trade tensions, notably between the United States and China, and an economic slowdown.

In October, the WTO forecast trade growth would grow 2.7 percent in 2020 after expanding 1.2 percent in 2019.

It said that this year, nearly all regions would suffer double-digit percentage declines in trade, with exports from North America and Asia the hardest hit. Sectors with complex value chains, such as electronics and automotive products, would also see steeper falls.

Services are not included in the WTO’s forecast, but the WTO said trade in this area may be hit hardest by COVID-19 because of transport and travel restrictions.

Follow our full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic here.

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