US Dollar Ready to Rise? USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR, USD/PHP
US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- US Dollar may be regaining upside momentum versus ASEAN FX
- USD/SGD and USD/MYR may be pushing higher with USD/IDR
- USD/PHP resumes trading inside well-established horizontal band
Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso Technical Outlook
The US Dollar succumbed to selling pressure last week against some of its ASEAN counterparts – as expected. This followed the emergence of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern in my ASEAN-based US Dollar index on the daily chart below. The index averages USD against SGD, IDR, MYR and PHP and it can help to paint a broader trajectory for the Greenback in the Southeast Asia region.
Now this week, the US Dollar could be readying to resume its appreciation after a brief pause. Prices have bounced off “inner” support after testing the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. A confirmatory upside close could set the Greenback on course to revisit its average dearest price since peaks in 2017. What is the road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP from here?
ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
ASEAN Chart Created in TradingView
Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook
The US Dollar could be preparing to resume gains against the Singapore Dollar. On the 4-hour chart, USD/SGD has closed and confirmed a push above falling resistance from late March – blue lines below. This also follows a bounce off “potential” support where prices established a barrier between 1.4203 to 1.4219. A rise through 1.4366 exposes 1.4441 on the way towards last month’s high at 1.4646.
Learn more about how the MAS conducts monetary policy and what matters for the Singapore Dollar!
USD/SGD 4-Hour Chart
USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView
Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook
The Indonesian Rupiah continues to trade at its cheapest price since 1998 against the US Dollar. Three levels of rising support may maintain the dominant upward USD/IDR trajectory: “1”, “2” and “3” on the daily chart below. A descent through 16090 exposes support “2” and may shift the near-term bias bearish. Otherwise a rise above 16605 exposes the 1998 peak at 16850 followed by the 38.20% Fibonacci extension at 17253.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView
Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook
The US Dollar pushed higher versus the Malaysian Ringgit over the past 2 sessions. This followed a test of former highs from June and August 2017. That makes for a key range of support between 4.2985 and 4.3085. Now USD/MYR is appearing to target last month’s peak which is closely aligned with the April 2017 high at 4.4390. A steep descent may eventually see prices testing “potential” support from January – pink line below.
USD/MYR Daily Chart
USD/MYR Chart Created in TradingView
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook
After returning to its former congestive range, the US Dollar resumed consolidating against the Philippine Peso. This followed a false upside breakout where USD/PHP established resistance between 51.70 – 51.82. The lower bound of congestion lays between 50.38 to 50.52. Breaching the upper bound entails taking out 51.13 to 51.30. Follow-through remains key in confirming a breakout, whether it is higher or lower.
To stay updated on fundamental developments for ASEAN currencies, follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX
USD/PHP Daily Chart
USD/PHP Chart Created in TradingView
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter