US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
US Dollar Technical Highlights:
- USD/CAD rising towards confluent resistance
- AUD/USD breakdown has familiar lows in view
- EUR/USD looks headed lower after a bounce
- GBP/USD bull-flag or etching out downtrend
USD/CAD rising towards confluent resistance
USD/CAD recaptured the 2012 trend-line last week, and since then it has continued to trade higher, but the rally may get stopped in its tracks soon. There is confluent resistance via the June trend-line and 200-day MA. Also, given the way the pair has traded with a lack of conviction, the currently ‘extended’ move into resistance in this environment might not take much to reverse. The outlook is turning increasingly bearish as it currently stands, watch how things play out around 13275.
USD/CAD Daily Chart (confluent resistance nearing)
USD/CAD Chart by TradingView
AUD/USD breakdown has familiar lows in view
AUD/USD dinged lower off the December trend-line/200-day combo to start the month, now it is working on holding below 68009. If price maintains through support on a daily basis the breakdown will have in focus the 6700/6670 area met several times from August to October. The 6800-area in a bearish scenario will go from support to resistance.
AUD/USD Daily Chart (breaking down toward 6700 level)
AUD/USD Chart by TradingView
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EUR/USD looks headed lower after a bounce
EUR/USD broke important support around the 11072 line, which has focus on the lows under 10900. But before getting there, in-line with how the Euro has been trading, the expectation is that we will see some kind of bounce before moving towards new cycle lows. On a rally look for the old support to turn into resistance should a recovery carry it that far. A retest could provide a nice risk/reward entry for those looking to establish shorts.
EUR/USD Daily Chart (10900 in sights)
EUR/USD Chart by TradingView
GBP/USD bull-flag or etching out downtrend
GBP/USD, is it building a bull-flag after last month’s historically strong rise, or is it slowly weakening towards a renewed downtrend? For now, the trend within the potential bull-flag is negative, but that is how these patterns work. It appears prudent to wait a bit longer before doing anything here, until either a clear bull-flag pattern forms and confirms via a breakout above the upper parallel, or we see the kind of selling come in that gives the upper hand to would-be shorts.
GBP/USD Daily Chart (bull-flag or rolling over?)
GBP/USD Chart by TradingView
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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