The Week Ahead: Stats, Geopolitics and Corporate America in Focus
On the Macro
For the Dollar
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.
July NY Empire State manufacturing numbers get the week going on Monday. Any further contraction would be a test ahead of June retail sales figures due out on Tuesday.
We can expect the retail sales figures to have a material impact on the Dollar on Tuesday.
Of less influence will be industrial production and business inventory numbers due out later in the day.
June housing data on Wednesday will likely have a muted impact ahead of July’s Philly FED manufacturing numbers on Thursday and consumer sentiment numbers on Friday.
Expect the Dollar to be reactive to the numbers in the final half of the week.
Outside the stats, trade war chatter and Iran will also be in focus.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.49% to $ 96.810.
For the EUR
It’s also a particularly quiet week ahead.
July’s ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out on Tuesday, along with the Eurozone’s trade numbers.
We would expect the ZEW numbers to be the key driver on the day.
The focus will then shift to the Eurozone’s finalized June inflation numbers due out on Wednesday.
With no material stats due out on Thursday, German wholesale inflation numbers could provide some direction on Friday.
We can expect the markets to brush aside Italian finalized inflation numbers due out on Tuesday.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to influence. There’s Iran, China, Italy, and Brexit to factor in.
The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.40% to $ 1.1270.
For the Pound
It’s also another relatively busy week ahead for the Pound
Employment figures due out on Tuesday will provide the Pound with direction at the start of the week. We can expect the focus to be on the claimant count and wage growth numbers.
June inflation figures will also hit the Pound on Wednesday ahead of retail sales figures due out on Thursday.
The string of data through the week will give the BoE further indications of how the economy performed at the end of the 2nd quarter.
Dire numbers and expect some dissent in the next MPC, in spite of better than expected stats last week.
Outside of the numbers, the leadership race goes into its final week. The result will be announced next week and then the race to the 31st October Brexit deadline will begin.
The GBP/USD ended the week up 0.41% at $ 1.2572.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy week ahead.
June inflation numbers and May retail sales figures due out on Wednesday and Friday will be the key drivers.
We can expect foreign security purchases and manufacturing sales to have a muted impact on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Outside of the numbers, the U.S – China trade talks and Iran will also need to be considered on the week.
Following last week’s BoC forward guidance, expect plenty of sensitivity to chatter on trade and influence from crude oil prices.
The Loonie ended the week up 0.41% to C$ 1.3028 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar
It’s another quiet week ahead.
The markets will need to wait until Thursday for June employment figures.
From China, 2nd quarter GDP and June industrial production figures will also have a material impact on Monday.
On the monetary policy front, the RBA will release its meeting minutes from the 4th June meeting on Tuesday. The question will be whether there was any discussion of another rate cut.
Outside of the stats, the U.S – China trade war and any rise in geopolitical risk to also influence.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.57% to $ 0.7020.
For the Japanese Yen
It’s another quiet week ahead.
Economic data is limited to June trade data due out on Thursday and June inflation figures due out on Friday.
We can expect the stats to continue to have a limited impact on the Yen, with geopolitical risk the key driver on the week.
From China, 2nd quarter GDP and industrial production figures due out on Monday will kick the week off.
The Japanese Yen ended the week up 0.52% to ¥107.91 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Kiwi Dollar
It’s also another particularly quiet week ahead.
Economic data is limited to 2nd quarter inflation figures due out on Tuesday. We can expect the Kiwi to be particularly sensitive to the numbers. Forecasts are Kiwi positive.
China’s economic figures due out on Monday will influence ahead of Tuesday’s numbers.
Outside of the stats, progress, or lack of, on the U.S – China trade talk progress will also be a factor.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 0.98% to $ 0.6693.
Out of China:
Economic data due out of China includes fixed asset investment, industrial production and 2nd quarter GDP numbers on Monday.
The market focus will be on the GDP numbers. Any softer numbers would certainly overshadow any positive industrial production numbers.
Outside of the numbers, the focus will remain on updates from the U.S – China trade talks. Progress will be needed to support market risk sentiment and limit the effects of any weak stats.
Trade Wars: Trade talks continue to be a key area of focus. The longer things drag out the less convinced the markets will be of any near-term conclusion. With the earnings season already in full swing, it could get interesting. China may not be alone in needing a resolution…
UK Politics: It’s the week before the result is announced. We can expect plenty of chatter, with both Johnson and Hunt wanting to spell out their Brexit plans with just 3-months remaining before B-Day.
Iran: If there hasn’t been any military action yet, there’s unlikely to be, or so the markets will think. There’s certainly plenty of news to suggest an escalation in the week ahead.
Earnings: It’s a big week ahead… Earnings releases and outlooks will not just influence the U.S majors, but risk appetite across the global financial markets.
Tuesday, 16th July
- Blackrock Inc.
- The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
- Johnson & Johnson
- JPMorgan Chase & Co
- Morgan Stanley
- Netflix Inc.
- Wells Fargo & Co
Wednesday, 17th July
- Bank of America Corp.
Thursday, 18th July
- American Express Co.
- The Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
- Microsoft Corp.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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