Weekly Technical Perspective on the Euro (EUR/USD)

July 11
23:06 2018
  • Euro weekly technical update – risk remains for a larger recovery while above 1.16
  • Check out our new 3Q EUR/USD projections in our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts
  • Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Euro weekly chart (EUR/USD). Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In last month’s Weekly Technical Perspective on the Euro, we highlighted a critical support zone in EUR/USD at 1.1606, “where the October low-close converges on the median-line of the broader ascending pitchfork formation and basic trendline support extending off the 2016 low. We’ve been tracking this support region in EUR/USD for over a month now and last weeks’ reversal candle on building RSI divergence suggests the near-term risk remains weighted to the topside against this threshold.

Steady as she goes . . . the outlook remains unchanged with weekly resistance seen at, “1.1910/30 backed closely by the yearly open at 1.2005- a breach / close above is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place (note the pending resistance trigger in RSI). A downside break from here targets the 50% Fibonacci retracement which converges on parallel support, at 1.1448.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: We’re looking to validate a larger reversal in price with the risk still weighted to the topside while above 1.1605(yearly low-day close at 1.1606). Note that a pending RSI resistance trigger remains play with a weekly close above to offer further conviction on long-exposure. The intraday trade levels remain unchanged from last month’s EUR/USD Scalp Report and we’re looking for support ahead of monthly open support at 1.1675 if this immediate advance has legs.

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EUR/USD Trader Positioning

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD- the ratio stands at -1.02 (49.6% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday and 4.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are4.0% higher than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

  • Weekly Technical Perspective on the British Pound (GBP/USD)
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on the US Dollar (DXY)
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at [email protected]

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