Full text: Govt estimates show India’s FY18 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices, for the financial year 2017-18. These are presented in Statements 1-4.
2. The First Advance Estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release calendar of National [email protected] The approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on benchmark-indicator method. The Sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production of first 7 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available upto quarter ending September, 2017 (iii) 1st advance estimates of crop production, (iv) accounts of Central & State Governments, information on indicators like deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles etc. available for first 8 months of the financial year. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation include non-GST revenue and GST revenue. For the year 2017-18, the Budget estimates of tax revenue as provided by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) has been used for estimating taxes on products at current prices. For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. Annual forecast of indicators which are available for first 7/8 months is based on regression using seasonal dummies to account for seasonal fluctuations. Some indicators like IIP has been compiled by dividing the cumulative value for the first 7 months of the current financial year by average of