AUD/USD Bullish Reversal Eyes Initial Resistance Targets
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- AUD/USD reversal off critical support shifts focus higher post-FOMC
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AUD/USD Daily Chart
Technical Outlook: Last month we noted that AUDUSD was approaching a critical support zone at 7476-7500- a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the May advance, the 50% retracement of the broader 2016 advance and basic slope support extending off the 2016 lows. Price reversed off this threshold this week with the post FOMC rally taking Aussie through the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly highs.
Daily resistance is eyed just higher 7690-7700 where the 50-line converges on the 200-day moving average and basic slope extending off the May lows. A breach above this threshold would be needed to unleash the next leg higher targeting the 2016 high-day close at 7735 & the 78-handle. Interim support now tests back at 7630 with our broader bullish invalidation level steady at 7500.
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AUD/USD 240min Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action sees the pair trading within a near-term ascending pitchfork extending off the November / December lows with the rally eyeing interim resistance just higher at the upper parallel near 7680. Look for interim support at 7630 backed by the median-line with our near-term bullish invalidation now raised to 7580. A breach higher targeting the slope confluence just above 7700 back by 7735/40 and the upper parallel / 50% retracement at 7800/13.
Bottom line: We’re likely to get some pullback off the upper parallel here but I’ll favor buying dips while above the median, ultimately targeting a larger break to the upside.
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- A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.01 (50% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
- The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Nov 5th– AUDUSD was at 76493
- Long positions are 14.6% lower than yesterday and 26.3% lower from last week
- Short positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 28.5% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias.
See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!
Relevant Data Releases
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– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at [email protected]