News with Tags "Stock Market Updates"

The Nifty and the Sensex continues its gains for the second trading session of 2013.

The Nifty closed at 5,993 after briefly touching 6,006 intra-day, up 43 points.

The Sensex closed at 19,714, up 133 points.

“‘Nifty has hit 6,000 levels after a gap of two years. We witnessed one of the best years for FII inflows in 2012 with total inflows crossing $24 billion. Markets bounced back sharply with a more than 27% gain. The political leadership ushered new reforms when the country was facing the threat of a sovereign downgrade. We expect this rally to continue in 2013 on the back of rate cuts, revival in growth and fiscal consolidation. We expect 13-15 per cent earnings growth and a P/E rerating from 14 to 16x,” said Varun Goel, head PMS-Karvy.

The volatility index, India Vix, closed flat at 13.71.

Bajaj Auto, J P Associates, Maruti, BPCL and IDFC were the top five Nifty gainers while Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, ITC, M&M and Wipro were the top losers.

The Nifty and the Sensex gained in excess of 0.75 per cent on New Year’s Day led by bullishness in and banking stocks.

A deal to delay implementation of the fiscal cliff in the US also added to the sentiment.

The Nifty closed at 5951 up 46 points while the Sensex closed at 19581 up 154 points.

“While the fiscal cliff has been likely averted, the deal has only postponed the spending cuts by two months, while implementing higher taxes on incomes of individuals earning above a threshold. Further negotiations will be needed to resolve the spending cut issues and even the existing agreement has to be passed by the House of Representatives, which will likely happen,” said Dipen Shah, Head –PCG Research Kotak Securities.

“The markets overlooked the worse-than-expected domestic data on current account deficit, core sector growth and fiscal deficit. With stability possibly returning in the developed markets, focus will now shift to corporate results and also to the domestic reforms initiatives which, we believe, should be taken up and implemented, for the markets to move up in a sustained manner,” he added.

An Edelweiss Financial Services report expects current account deficit(CAD) for FY13 at $74 billion (4 per cent of GDP). In the coming quarter (Q3), CAD is expected to remain elevated as export slowdown continued and gold imports picked up.

However, we do foresee improvement in Q4 as improving external demand helps exports and as gold imports normalize after seasonal uptick, said the report while revising its earlier CAD estimate of $ 65bn (-3.3% of GDP).

Volatility was down 8.43 per cent and the volatility index India Vix closed at 13.69.

The Nifty and the Sensex closed marginally in the red on Monday amid volatile trading.

The Nifty closed at 5,905, down three points while the Sensex closed at 19,427, down 18 points.

Volatility was high and the volatility index, India Vix, closed at 14.95, up 10 per cent.

“On the macro façade, numerals of monthly surveys of manufacturing and service sectors will be in focus,” said Rajesh Agarwal, Head-Research, Eastern Financiers.

“Auto and cement stocks will be in the limelight as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales data for December 2012,” he added.

All the other broader indices closed in the green on the NSE and the BSE.

Among sectoral indices, IT/Teck, FMCG and Capital Goods closed marginally in the red on the BSE.

On the NSE, the CNX Finance, Pharma, FMCG, IT, Infra and Service indices closed marginally in the red.

PNB, DLF, ACC, GAIL and Tata Power were the top five Nifty gainers while HCL Tech, ITC, TCS, IDFC and L&T were the top losers.

Both the Sensex and the Nifty are set to end 2012 with aplomb, close to their yearly highs.

The first six months of the year were volatile with the indices staging a sharp rally in January and February only to give it all up by June. But the uptrend that began at the June trough continues to be in place towards the end of the year.

BSE mid and small cap indices that had suffered sharper declines in 2011 gained 38 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. But the long-term trend in these indices continues to be down. If the market turns volatile in 2013, the smaller stocks could see sharper declines.

Long-term trend

There is no alteration in the long-term trend we had outlined in the yearly outlook published for 2011 or 2012. To recount, we are assuming that the new cycle of a secular bull market began in 2001. One wave of this cycle ended at the January 2008 peak.

The second wave did not last long but was strong enough to lead to the assumption that the third wave of the secular bull market began in March 2009. In other words, it is highly unlikely that the Sensex will go back to 8047 or the Nifty to 2539 in the coming years. We stay with the first two long-term targets for the Sensex at 39,337 and 58,743 (to be achieved in the next 10 years). This count continues to be valid unless the Sensex closes below 13,000.

The corresponding long-term targets for the Nifty are 12,718 and 19,011. The long-term outlook will have to be altered only if the Nifty closes below 4000.

We had discussed an alternative count as well last year, the possibility of the move from 8047 in Sensex being the fifth of the long-term impulse wave. In this event, the supports for Sensex stay at 14,775 and 13,044. Nifty’s supports are at 4436 and 3916. According to this count too, the downside over the long term could be limited to 13,000 on the Sensex and around 4,000 on the Nifty.

The first part of the third wave from 8047 in the Sensex ended at the November 2010 peak of 21,108. The second part of this wave appears to be unfolding currently. The pattern thus far suggests that instead of being fast and deep, it will be long-drawn and shallow. We are already two years into this corrective move and it can easily extend for a year or more.

That sets the long-term trading range of 15,000 to 22,000 for the Sensex and between 4,500 and 6,500 in Nifty.

2013 outlook

In other words, 2013 could be more volatile than 2012. Sensex and Nifty could move on to new life-time highs, but it would be best to tread with caution at such times. There is the possibility of the indices reversing lower and going into sharp declines too.

We are not very clear on the pattern that the index is currently forming, but the indices could form a higher bottom in the next leg of the decline. Sensex could halt its decline around 17,000 and the Nifty around 5,000. Declines would, therefore, provide stock-picking opportunities for the long term.

The range for 2013 for Sensex is between 17,000 and 22,000 with outer limits at 15,000 and 31,500. The range for Nifty is between 5,000 and 6,500 with outer range at 4,500 and 8720. We will revisit the outlook during the year if the outer limits are breached.

Indian equities, the Sensex and the Nifty, continued to trade flat in the late morning session today.

Market participants said the activity was restricted as today being the last trading session of the calendar year 2012 and due to lack of of any positive cues from the global markets.

The 30-share BSE index Sensex was down 3.5 points (0.02 per cent) at 19,441.34 and the 50-share NSE index Nifty was down 0.95 points (0.02 per cent) at 5,907.40.

Volume toppers were RIL, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and L&T. Top five Sensex gainers were Jindal Steel, Wipro, Hindalco, Sterlite and Tata Motors, while the top five losers were ITC, Cipla, TCS, Sun Pharma and Coal India.

On the BSE, Realty, Metal, Consumer Durables and Auto stocks were trading in the green. On the other hand, FMCG, IT, Healthcare and TECk stocks were trading in the red.

Financial markets were closed in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, with half-day trading in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The unresolved “fiscal cliff” issue in the US has put brakes on investors’ appetite to trade.

Both the Sensex and the Nifty are set to end 2012 with aplomb, close to their yearly highs.

The first six months of the year were volatile with the indices staging a sharp rally in January and February only to give it all up by June. But the uptrend that began at the June trough continues to be in place towards the end of the year.

BSE mid and small cap indices that had suffered sharper declines in 2011 gained 38 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. But the long-term trend in these indices continues to be down. If the market turns volatile in 2013, the smaller stocks could see sharper declines.

Long-term trend

There is no alteration in the long-term trend we had outlined in the yearly outlook published for 2011 or 2012. To recount, we are assuming that the new cycle of a secular bull market began in 2001. One wave of this cycle ended at the January 2008 peak.

The second wave did not last long but was strong enough to lead to the assumption that the third wave of the secular bull market began in March 2009. In other words, it is highly unlikely that the Sensex will go back to 8047 or the Nifty to 2539 in the coming years. We stay with the first two long-term targets for the Sensex at 39,337 and 58,743 (to be achieved in the next 10 years). This count continues to be valid unless the Sensex closes below 13,000.

The corresponding long-term targets for the Nifty are 12,718 and 19,011. The long-term outlook will have to be altered only if the Nifty closes below 4000.

We had discussed an alternative count as well last year, the possibility of the move from 8047 in Sensex being the fifth of the long-term impulse wave. In this event, the supports for Sensex stay at 14,775 and 13,044. Nifty’s supports are at 4436 and 3916. According to this count too, the downside over the long term could be limited to 13,000 on the Sensex and around 4,000 on the Nifty.

The first part of the third wave from 8047 in the Sensex ended at the November 2010 peak of 21,108. The second part of this wave appears to be unfolding currently. The pattern thus far suggests that instead of being fast and deep, it will be long-drawn and shallow. We are already two years into this corrective move and it can easily extend for a year or more.

That sets the long-term trading range of 15,000 to 22,000 for the Sensex and between 4,500 and 6,500 in Nifty.

2013 outlook

In other words, 2013 could be more volatile than 2012. Sensex and Nifty could move on to new life-time highs, but it would be best to tread with caution at such times. There is the possibility of the indices reversing lower and going into sharp declines too.

We are not very clear on the pattern that the index is currently forming, but the indices could form a higher bottom in the next leg of the decline. Sensex could halt its decline around 17,000 and the Nifty around 5,000. Declines would, therefore, provide stock-picking opportunities for the long term.

The range for 2013 for Sensex is between 17,000 and 22,000 with outer limits at 15,000 and 31,500. The range for Nifty is between 5,000 and 6,500 with outer range at 4,500 and 8720. We will revisit the outlook during the year if the outer limits are breached.