News with Tags "oil"

Manipulation probe draws attention to oil firms’ trading desks

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 20:08 pm

By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Claire Milhench

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's energy price manipulation probe has turned regulatory attention to secretive trading units at oil companies with huge turnover and millionaire staff with risk appetite higher than at Wall Street's biggest banks.

Regulators have scrutinised banks, trading houses and commodities markets more closely following the Libor benchmark rigging scandal but trading desks at oil majors have largely escaped attention.

Although banks and trading houses have expanded rapidly in energy over the past decades, oil companies still often dwarf them in size, geographical reach, profits and sometimes the magnitude of scandals surrounding their operations.

An EU investigation into the suspected manipulation of the price of crude oil, refined products and ethanol has thrown them into the spotlight.

"Political pressure for regulatory action and stricter oversight of both traders and price reporting agencies will ramp up," said Roderick Bruce, energy analyst at IHS think-tank.

EU investigators raided offices of BP , Shell and Statoil , trading house Argos Energy and pricing agency Platts last week as part of the case. It was the biggest cross-border action by the regulators since the Libor scandal.

Despite massive disclosure obligations by publicly-listed oil firms, simple metrics such as revenue and profit at their trading divisions are not public. Some investors say more disclosure is required.

"This is not structural so it should be reported separately," said Charles Whall, who helps co-manage $1.08 billion (717.08 million pounds) at Investec Global Energy Fund, including shares in Shell. "There's not enough of that."

The world's biggest trading houses including Glencore , Vitol, Gunvor, Trafigura and Mercuria, long perceived as the most secretive firms in oil trading, have all started releasing detailed financial data in recent years to tap bond and equity markets.

By contrast, oil majors like BP, Shell, Statoil, Total and Eni disclose very little.

For example, BP , one of the biggest and most powerful trading desks in the industry, last disclosed figures for trading in 2005 when it earned $2.97 billion, or over a tenth of the group's overall net profit.

RISK APPETITE

Since 2005, BP has only disclosed whether trading had "stronger" or "weaker" contributions in a given quarter. Disclosure levels at Shell, Total, Eni are similar.

"Our trading activities are accounted for under International Financial Reporting Standards. The disclosures we provide in the annual financial statements are also determined by those standards," a BP spokesman said.

He added that when trading has a notable impact on quarterly performance the firm would always spell this out. Statoil said it believes it has well-balanced disclosures. Shell, Eni and Total declined to comment.

Insiders say BP's annual trading profits have fluctuated since 2005 between $1-$3 billion compared to $1.7-$2.3 billion at the world's largest oil trading house Vitol.

Oil majors say trading facilitates cooperation between their producing, refining and distribution units.

"It is not speculative and it doesn't take large positions or exposures," Shell's chief financial officer Simon Henry told a shareholders meeting this week while saying the company often makes more money in volatile trading conditions.

Statoil said its trading is primarily related to physical activities and hedging: "Proprietary trading is limited".

Investec's Whall view of how trading operates is quite different.

"We invest in these companies because this is one of the ways they make money. They have a physical position and run a speculative book on the back of it. I'm quite comfortable with that if it's well controlled," he said.

One metric shows that risk appetite at oil majors' trading divisions is large.

Value-at-risk, which measures how much a company is prepared to lose in one day on trading, averaged $34 million at BP in 2012, down from as high as $45 million in 2009. It was stable in the past few years at around $30 million at Shell.

Only Glencore, the world's top trader, has comparable figures at $40 million with Gunvor's VaR averaging only $12 million.

The biggest Wall Street banks active in commodities trading have almost halved their VaR levels to $15-$20 million a day in recent years as they cut down on proprietary trading - trading with a firm's own money to make money for itself rather than for a customer. It can lead to more risky trading and more volatile profits.

"I find it quite extraordinary that during a global clampdown on proprietary trading, especially at banks, publicly-listed oil majors are still allowed to effectively maintain large prop operations," an industry veteran, who has worked at both banks and majors, said.

PRESSURE ON BOTH CONTINENTS

The United States has stricter oversight of financial and commodities markets and has had several successful high-profile prosecutions of oil companies for market manipulation.

In 2007, BP paid a record $303 million in a settlement with U.S. authorities for manipulating propane prices. "BP engaged in a massive manipulation..." U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said at the time.

After that, the U.S. Department of Justice installed a monitor, who oversaw BP's trading activities for several years.

Insiders say BP has made significant changes to its trading division since then, including by cutting back on remuneration to reduce risk taking.

Other oil majors as well as traders such as Arcadia have also been charged by U.S. officials with market manipulation over the past decades.

The European Union has tightened oversight of the commodities market to be closer to rules in the United States. The EU pricing probe, which a key U.S. senator has urged the U.S. Justice Department to join, may signal that the regulator is getting more aggressive.

(Additional reporting by Andrew Callus, Muriel Boselli, Stephen Jewkes and Balazs Koranyi, Editing by Anna Willard)

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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 20:08 pm.
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FY14 subsidy outgo of upstream cos seen up by 45%: Tulsian

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 18:41 pm

The oil subsidy contribution by upstream companies like Oil India , GAIL and ONGC may go as high as 45 percent from current 37.5 percent, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com said. Oil secretary Vivek Rae today said that upstream companies will share subsidy burden to the tune of Rs 60,000 crore for FY13.

Going forward under recoveries of oil marketing companies are like to reduce as they will adopt the export parity pricing for petroleum products. In 2012-13, the total oil subsidy burden shared by government and upstream companies is around Rs 1,60,000 crore.


Tulsian said if hypothetically the under recovery for FY14 shrinks to Rs 1,00,000 crore, the total contribution from upstream companies will move higher as the government will take advantage of the fall in under recovery.


“…government will like to take the advantage of that fall or the lower fiscal deficit or the lower under recovery in the exchequer account rather than giving to the upstream companies,” he said.


He believes that approval of Rs 45,000 crore oil subsidy for Q4 will provide some relief to oil marketing companies. The percentage contribution of OMCs in the oil subsidy have reduced by 80 bps in this FY13, Tulsian observed, which he termed as a positive sign. He expects OMCs stocks like Hindustan Petroleum Corp , Bharat Petroleum Corp and Indian Oil Corp to improve slightly after today's fall.


Below is the verbatim transcript of the Tulsian’ interview.


Q: Help us understand this math, total FY13 revenue loss compensation by government at Rs 1 lakh crore and upstream burden at Rs 60,000 crore that leaves a short fall of Rs 20,000 crore or so?


A: No, I think this total under recovery is Rs 1,60,000 crore of which Rs 1,00,000 crore is borne by the government and Rs 60,000 crore by the upstream companies. The upstream companies contributed Rs 53,647 crore and now they will be contributing Rs 60,000 crore. So on the absolute number, the subsidy has risen by about Rs 6,500 crore.


Q: Based on this do you expect any kind of a stock reaction?


A: I think maybe some positive will be seen because the export parity price (EPP) seems to be quite negative, but this immediate release of Rs 45,000 crore as the last tranche will also be seen as the good relief to the oil marketing companies (OMCs). Because people were expecting these things to go in limbo. So one has to see FY14 numbers of these oil marketing companies because if you heard the oil minister even he was not very clear because this migration from trade parity to export parity is all leaving these grey areas whether the under recovery or the losses to OMCs will be Rs 10,000 crore or Rs 18,000 crore. This is mild positive for the OMCs because the kind of hit they have taken, now the stock should recover from these levels.


Q: We have Rs 60,000 crore out of total Rs 1,60,000 crore for upstream, that is 37.5 percent but as we were talking earlier also, sometimes percentage is not as important as the absolute number, what should the market’s takeaway be on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)?


A: Let me first crystalise the numbers. Rs 1,60,000 crore is total under recovery, which will be borne by the government and upstream companies. Let us come on the sharing by the upstream companies i.e. Rs 60,000 crore so that works out to 37.5 percent. If you take the scenario for FY12, it had an under recovery of Rs 1,40,000 crore and of that Rs 53,647 crore were contributed by the upstream companies, which translated into 38.3 percent.


So if you see the upstream contribution on the absolute number it has increased from Rs 53,647 crore to Rs 60,000 crore that means by Rs 6,500 crore. However, on the other hand, the total under recovery has also gone up by Rs 20,000 crore for FY13 over FY12. If you go in the previous year that is for FY11 the total under recovery of Rs 78,300 crore and in that situation upstream contributed only Rs 30,000 crore. So I think the relative contribution by the OMCs are more relevant than the absolute contribution by the upstream companies. So in my view, the percentage contribution by the OMCs have reduced by 80 bps in this FY13, which should be seen positive.


Q: That point becomes important because going forward in FY14, the subsidy burden is going to be much lower. The initial calculations are that it would be somewhere around Rs 80,000 crore and Rs 90,000 crore if crude remains at current level and with the diesel under recoveries also coming down so significantly. So what number should the market be now working with on upstream, should the market say okay, let us do the math of 38 percent roughly in terms of subsidy burden or should the market be focused about the absolute number and then what that number could turn out to be?


A: I have always been maintaining that government will try to squeeze as much as they can from the upstream companies. It will be futile in taking the call on this percentage number. For instance, hypothetically if you say that for FY14, the under recovery will be Rs 1,00,000 crore, the total under recovery I am talking, I will not be surprised to see that contribution from the upstream moving to as high as 45 percent also because government will like to take the advantage of that fall or the lower fiscal deficit or the lower under recovery in the exchequer account rather than giving to the upstream companies. So in any situation, I have always been saying that for last couple of years that the bottomline of the OMCs are all pegged similar is the case with bottomline for ONGC also even that is pegged. They continue to enjoy the realization of sub-USD 50 per barrel. I do not think that one should take a call going forward for FY14.


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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 18:41 pm.
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Rs 60K cr upstream subsidy burden expected: Quant Broking

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 16:46 pm

The oil ministry has said that upstream companies will be contributing Rs 60,000 crore to oil marketing companies .

Gagan Dixit of Quant Broking says that the Rs 60,000 crore upstream subsidy burden was mostly in line with expectations. Talking to CNBC-TV18, he says there should not be any surprise, because these companies are already paying USD 150 billion on a quarterly basis.


Subsequently, on a full-year basis, we are getting a USD 600 billion number. So, this is more or less in line with what the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation ( ONGC ) management has been communicating since the past one year. However, crude prices have corrected, and the diesel under-recoveries have also come down, below Rs 4.


It has to be seen how much these upstream companies will benefit from the decline in any subsidy. That will need to be watched.


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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 16:46 pm.
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Nifty ends at 6100; cap goods, realty, oil gas drag

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 14:34 pm

Moneycontrol Bureau
Live Market Commentary

3:50 pm Index losers: BSE Capital Goods index (down 3.8 percent) and BSE Realty index (down 3.6 percent) were laggards of the day. BSE Oil and Gas index fell 0.9 percent from its previous close.

3:45 pm Midcap gainers: Berger Paints and Manappuram Fin were major gainers among the midcap stocks.


3:40 pm Midcap losers: India Cements, Apollo Hospital, AstraZeneca,Dena Bank, HDIL, Muthoot Finance, Omaxe,Puravankara Projects, Shree Renuka, TataTeleservice are major losers in the Sensex.


3:30 pm Market check: The Sensex closed up 32.78 points at 20078.83 while the Nifty ended 13.75 points to be 6100.35.


3:20 pm Puravankara slumps 6% as the price band for the Institutional placement programme (IPP) has been set between Rs 80 to 85a share. The issue opens and closes tomorrow.


Puravankara slumps 6% as the price band for the Institutional placement programme (IPP) has been set between Rs 80 to 85a share. The issue opens and closes tomorrow.


3:15 pm Losers: L&T, Hero Motocorp, Tata Power, GAIL and RIL are major losers in the Sensex.


Slideshow: Balance sheet check: 7 stocks to `hold` in your portfolio post March quarter


3:10 pm Buzzing: India Cements was quoting at Rs 75.75, down Rs 8.90, or 10.51 percent.


Experts take:


Gold rallied for years on 'misunderstanding'
S&P likely to see 1700: Eastspring's Nicholas Ferres


The market is growing weak dragged by capital goods, realty and oil & gas.  The Sensex is down 94.62 points or 0.47% at 20016.99, and the Nifty down 35.60 points or 0.58% at 6078.50. About 834 shares have advanced, 1437 shares declined, and 136 shares are unchanged.


Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddys Labs, NTPC and ITC are big gainers in the Sensex.


Big boy L&T disappoints with profit at Rs 1,788 crore, lower than street expectations of Rs 1,944 crore. Margins too are a miss at 12 percent versus estimates of 13.5 percent. The only positive is a bonus issue of 1 share for every 2 held.


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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 14:34 pm.
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Buy chana, CPO, soy oil, sell maize, cardamom: Sharekhan

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 12:04 pm

May 22, 2013, 12.34 PM IST

Sharekhan has come out with its report on agri commodities. The research has recommended to buy chana, CPO, soy oil on dips and sell maize, cardamom on rise in its report dated May 22, 2013.

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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 12:04 pm.
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Nifty flat, oil and gas stocks under pressure

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 11:35 am

Live Market Commentary
Moneycontrol Bureau

12:52 pm: BSE realty index is down 1.3%.

12:50 pm News update: Max Life Insurance has been send a notice for service tax evasion worth Rs 100 crore, reports Cogencis quoting government  sources.


Check out: How broking firms rate Tech Mahindra's Q4 results


12:45 pm at 52-week low: Jubilant Life, Kingfisher Air, Novartis India, OracleFinancial, Simbhaoli Sugar, Tara Jewels are at 52-week low.


12:40 pm Slipping oil: ONGC, GAIL and RIL are major losers in the Sensex.


12:30 pm European markets: The European markets opens marginally lower.


12:24 pm Aviation update: Competition Commission is examining proposed deal between Jet Airways and Etihad.


12:20 pm Losing now: BPCL is down 4.5 percent at Rs 384.55 on the BSE.


12:15 pm Precious metals update: Govt cuts base import price of gold to USD 440/10 gm vs USD 466/10 gm.


12:07 pm Key gainers: Sun Pharma, Dr Reddys Labs and Coal India are major gainers in the Sensex.


12:03pm Buzzing now: SPML Infra receives new order worth Rs 488 crore. It is quoting at Rs 46.00, up Rs 4.40, or 10.58 percent.


Expert comments on rupee:
Indian rupee not as big a concern for FIIs now: Goldman
Rupee slide to end soon, won't breach 56/$: StanChart
Rupee to end 2013 in range of 56.50-57/$: Credit Suisse


It's flat day for the market with the Nifty holding above 6100. The Sensex was at 20154.88, up 43.27 points while the Nifty gained 7.70 points to be 6121.80.


Oil stocks are under selling pressure. HPCL, IOC and BPCL are down around 1.5 percent.


Oil Minister and FM may meet PMO today to resolve export parity issue. The ministry is still against OMCs switching to export parity while the FM not keen to compensate till companies switch to export parity. OMCs may take Rs 18,000 crore hit on switching to export parity.


Oil saw a downtick after five sessions of holding up with brent at USD103.5. Precious metals were in focus again with gold falling 1.3 percent and silver down 2.7 percent. The rupee continues to trade at multi month lows. The rupee weakness comes from a broad dollar rally on brighter prospects from the US.


Bonds saw some hardening to 7.36 percent vs a close of 7.35 percent. Bonds are under pressure after the governemnt failed to announce a buyback so far this week while cash availability amongst banks remains tight.


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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 11:35 am.
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Crude palm oil softens on global cues

Posted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 05:34 am

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Posted by on Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 05:34 am.
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Moily asks Kelkar to suggest roadmap for freeing gas prices

Posted on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 23:38 pm

Oil minister M Veerappa Moily has asked the Vijay Kelkar Panel on energy security to suggest roadmap for freeing natural gas prices by March 2017. Moily expanded the terms of reference (ToR) of the panel he appointed in March to prepare a roadmap for enhancing domestic production of oil and gas so as to substantially reduce the nation's import dependency by 2030.

Also Read: Oil Ministry recommends natural gas price hike to $6.7


In the new ToR, the panel has been asked to prepare a "roadmap for switching over to the market determined gas pricing at the end of 12th plan period." Currently most of the gas produced in the country is sold at sub-market price of USD 4.2 per million British thermal unit and the oil ministry has approached the Cabinet for raising it by over 60 percent to USD 6.775 as per a complex international hub and LNG price based formula suggested by the Prime Minister-appointed Rangarajan panel.


This new price will be roughly half of the market price. While the Rangarajan panel had suggested freeing of gas prices in 3-5 years, Moily now wants Kelkar panel to clearly spell out a roadmap leading to that. The panel headed by former oil secretary Kelkar has als being asked to "give views on the recommendations of Rangarajan Committee on moving from production-sharing contracts to revenue-sharing contracts."


The Rangarajan panel had recommended that companies should be asked to bid upfront the amount of oil and gas they will share with the government for award of exploration acreage. This will replace the current practice of companies getting blocks by bidding maximum work programme and then recovering all of their investment before sharing profits with the government.


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Posted by on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 23:38 pm.
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Crude palm oil weakens 0.3% on sluggish demand

Posted on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 17:11 pm

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Posted by on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 17:11 pm.
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Oil price falls toward $96 per barrel

Posted on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 16:02 pm

The price of oil retreated toward USD 96 per barrel Tuesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's latest views on the US economy.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 28 cents to USD 96.43 per barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained 69 cents to close at USD 96.71 on Monday.


Also read:  Oil price rises to near USD 97 per barrel


On Wednesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will appear before Congress and the central bank will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting. Traders will be looking for hints on what the Fed might be preparing to do in light of recent data that has pointed toward a sustained economic recovery.


There is ongoing speculation that the Fed might want to scale back or modify its super-loose monetary policy and its massive, USD 85 billion-a-month program of bond purchases intended to keep interest rates low and prop up the recovery.


"We hear some testimony from Big Ben Bernanke this week and we can only think that he`s going to stick to his mantra. Meaning that he`s status quo; the economy is moving along well, we would like to see it move faster, but we`re doing all we can," said Carl Larry of Oil Outlooks and Opinions in an email commentary.


Brent crude, a benchmark for many international oil varieties, fell 50 cents to USD 104.30 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.


In other energy futures trading on Nymex:


 Whlesale gasoline fell 2.3 cents to USD 2.689 a gallon.


 Natural gas fell 0.7 cent to USD 4.097 per 1,000 cubic feet


 Heating oil fell 0.8 cent to USD 2.934 a gallon.


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Posted by on Tuesday, May 21, 2013 - 16:02 pm.
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