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METALS OUTLOOK: Watch U.S. Dollar, FOMC Meetings For Metals Markets’ Direction

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 16:11 pm



By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

Editor’s note: Catch the Latest Happenings with Kitco Video News!

(Kitco News) - The direction of the U.S. dollar versus the euro and a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy committee will influence the direction for the precious metals markets next week.

Weekend events, such as the outcome of the International Monetary Fund meeting and the first round of French presidential elections, may also impact precious-metals prices.

Prices were mixed on Friday and mixed on the week. The most-active June gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose Friday, but settled at $ 1,642.80 an ounce, down 1.05% on the week. May silver fell Friday, but settled at $ 31.651 an ounce, up 0.83% on the week.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 11 see prices up, while six see prices down, and eight are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

The U.S. dollar’s movement could be what determines where gold trades next week. Some cited Friday’s weakness in the dollar and strength in the euro as potentially supportive for gold. Normally gold and the dollar trade inversely because gold is denominated in dollars. Just how much strength the euro will have next week could depend on the outcome of the French presidential election, with current President Nicholas Sarkozy and socialist candidate Francois Hollande expected to advance to the second round. The second vote will occur on May 6.

Brown Brothers Harriman said that Hollande has suggested European Central Bank should cut rates to help the eurozone while Sarkozy has said that the ECB should play a “pro-growth” role for Europe. “No matter who wins the election in France, the fraying of Franco-German relations is already being seen and is likely to get worse as the French economy outlook deteriorates,” BBH said.

Barclays Capital said they believe that Hollande will win the May 6 second round, but said they worries about Hollande are overblown. “Although Hollande’s policy proposals have captured market attention, we think the election is likely not a game changer,” they said.

The IMF is meeting Friday and this weekend to discuss, among other topics, the continued sovereign-debt problems in Europe. The IMF expected to achieve the $ 400 billion dollar boost it seeks to help Europe and sources said more clarity could come on the expansion in IMF funding, giving markets a stronger sense on what’s available to support the global economy.

Another influence on the euro may be the results of the eurozone purchasing managers’ index, a manufacturing survey. Higher-than-expected data would be euro-supportive, while lower-than-expected data would pressure the euro.

Several market watchers said if the euro weakens, the dollar will likely rally and pressure gold, while if the euro stabilizes and rises, gold may also follow suit since the dollar would fall. But not everyone thinks the dollar is hampering gold. Some suggested that gold is tripping on its own weight because of its range-bound trade lately.


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Callon Petroleum Company Issues Guidance For Second Quarter, Full Year 2012

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 15:24 pm

Natchez, MS (May 7, 2012)-Callon Petroleum Company (CPE) is issuing guidance for the second quarter and full year 2012.  The guidance, found in the table below, is expressed in ranges for the detailed components.

The following guidance estimates contain assumptions that we believe are reasonable.  These estimates are based upon information that is available as of the date of this news release.  We are not undertaking any obligation to update these estimates as conditions change or as additional information becomes available.

Second Quarter and Full Year 2012
Guidance Estimates
(In thousands, except per production unit amounts)
Guidance for Guidance for
2nd Quarter 2012 Full Year 2012
Estimated production volumes:
Natural gas (Bcf) 0.9 –1.0 3.7 — 4.1
Crude oil (Mbo) 210 — 235 1,030 — 1,160
Boe/d 4,000 — 4,400 4,500 — 5,000
Lease operating expenses $ 5,000 — $ 6,000 $ 24,000 — $ 27,000
Severance Tax $ 500  — $ 1,000 $ 4,000 — $ 5,000
General and administrative expenses:
Cash $ 3,100 — $ 3,400 $ 12,600  — $ 13,400
Non-cash 1,500 –   1,700 5,400  –     6,600
Total $ 4,600 — $ 5,100 $ 18,000  — $ 20,000
Interest expense:
Cash $ 3,400 — $ 3,750 $ 13,600  — $ 15,000
Non-cash (700) –    (750) (2,600) –   (3,000)
Total $ 2,700 — $ 3,000 $ 11,000  — $ 12,000
Medusa Spar LLC, net of tax $ 75 — $ 100 $ 350  — $ 450
DD & A – per BOE $ 32.00 — $ 33.00 $ 29.00 — $ 32.00
Accretion expense $ 500 — $ 600 $ 2,100  — $ 2,400
Effective income tax rate 28% 28%
Cash income tax rate -% -%

Listed below are the outstanding hedges for crude oil per quarter for 2012 and 2013.  We have no natural gas hedges in place for either year.

6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012
Crude Oil
Collars Volume (Mbo) 75 75 75
Ceiling $ 122.00 $ 122.00 $ 122.00
Floor $ 90.00 $ 90.00 $ 90.00
Collars Volume (Mbo) 75 75 75
Ceiling $ 125.00 $ 125.00 $ 125.00
Floor $ 95.00 $ 95.00 $ 95.00
3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 12/31/2013
Collars Volume (Mbo) 120 120 120 120
Ceiling $ 116.00 $ 116.00 $ 116.00 $ 116.00
Floor $ 90.00 $ 90.00 $ 90.00 $ 90.00
                               

Callon Petroleum Company is engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration and operation of oil and gas properties in Texas, Louisiana and the offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

This news release is posted on the company`s website at www.callon.com and will be archived there for subsequent review.  It can be accessed from the “News Releases” link at the top of the homepage. 

This news release contains projections and other forward-looking statements (including statements about 2012 financial and operating performance) within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.  These projections and statements reflect the company`s current views with respect to future events and financial performance.  No assurances can be given, however, that these events will occur or that these projections will be achieved and actual results could differ materially from those projected as a result of certain factors.  Some of the factors which could affect our future results and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements include: 

  • general economic and industry conditions;
  • volatility of oil and natural gas prices;
  • uncertainty of estimates of oil and natural gas reserves;
  • impact of competition;
  • availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment;
  • operating hazards inherent in the exploration for and production of oil and natural gas;
  • difficulties encountered during the exploration for and production of oil and natural gas;
  • difficulties encountered in delivering oil and natural gas to commercial markets;
  • changes in customer demand and producers` supply;
  • uncertainty of our ability to attract capital;
  • compliance with, or the effect of changes in, the extensive governmental regulations regarding the oil and natural gas business;
  • actions of operators of our oil and gas properties;
  • weather conditions; and
  • the risk factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including but not limited to those in our Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2011 on Form 10-K.

 The preceding estimates reflect our review of continuing operations only.  These estimates do not take into account any material transactions such as sales of debt and equity securities, acquisitions or divestitures of assets, and formations of joint ventures.  We continually review these types of transactions and may engage in one or more of these types of transactions without prior notice.

For further information contact
Rodger W. Smith   1-800-451-1294





This announcement is distributed by Thomson Reuters on behalf of Thomson Reuters clients.

The owner of this announcement warrants that:
(i) the releases contained herein are protected by copyright and other applicable laws; and
(ii) they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the
information contained therein.

Source: Callon Petroleum Company via Thomson Reuters ONE
HUG#1609639

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Romney battles to get back on economic message

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:28 pm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Likely Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney battled to get back on his economic message on Friday after being sidetracked by a debate over gay rights and a reported bullying incident from 1965.

Romney’s drive to keep the focus on President Barack Obama‘s handling of the fragile U.S. economy took a back seat this week when Obama declared his support for same-sex marriage, a move that energized his liberal base and gave the Democratic incumbent a splash of news coverage.

Obama’s decision on gay marriage, after resisting the step for two years, contributed to a big surge in fund-raising for his campaign. Obama hauled in $ 15 million at a single, star-studded event in Los Angeles where he played basketball on Friday with stars George Clooney and Tobey Maguire.

Far from Hollywood, Romney visited North Carolina, a state that will be central in determining whether he can defeat Obama in the November 6 election.

Romney skirted the same-sex issue in a visit to Charlotte and stuck to the economy, saying Obama represents “old-school liberals” who want to continue to borrow money from countries like China in order to spend it recklessly in Washington.

“This recovery’s been the slowest, most tepid since Hoover,” said Romney in a reference to Depression-era President Herbert Hoover from the 1930s.

Romney wants to avoid making same-sex marriage a major focus of the campaign because Obama is much more vulnerable on the economy. Polls show a growing number of Americans favor gay marriage, but the slow economic recovery is by far their major concern.

“There will come a day when Romney will need to debate Obama on stage, but we don’t need to have that debate now,” a Romney adviser said. “We want that debate to be about economy and jobs. And number two, we believe the net results of this will be to our benefit.”

A new Gallup survey said 60 percent of Americans reported that Obama’s support for same-sex marriage will make no difference to their vote. Twenty-six percent said it would make them less likely to vote for him.

BULLYING ALLEGATION LINGERS

In North Carolina, a crowd of about 600 at the Charlotte Pipe and Foundry Company received Romney enthusiastically, booing almost every mention of Obama or his economic policies and cheering Romney’s pledge to “take America back.”

As Romney spoke in North Carolina, Obama touted mortgage relief in Nevada, another battleground state.

With Romney breaking no new ground on the economy, he could not escape questions in North Carolina about allegations of bullying a student in high school who was believed to be gay.

“If anybody was offended, I apologize for that,” Romney told Charlotte’s WSOC-TV when asked about a Washington Post story about the incident at the prestigious Cranbrook School in Michigan. Romney was said to have clipped off the bleached blond hair of a classmate who had been tackled and pinned down by Romney’s friends.

The student, John Lauber, was later presumed to be gay.

Romney has been on the defensive about the episode, which he says he cannot precisely recall.

The former Massachusetts governor also will need to address gay rights when he speaks at the evangelical Liberty University on Saturday. He will allude to traditional marriage as “an enduring institution that deserves to be defended,” an aide said.

The Romney campaign has sought to use the candidate’s wife, Ann, to attract more support from women voters who favor Obama. She also has tried to make Romney, who can sometimes come across as stiff and robotic, more accessible.

Ann Romney wrote an opinion piece for USA Today and conducted a series of interviews in advance of Mother’s Day on Sunday.

Her status as a stay-at-home mother who raised five sons has been ridiculed by some Democrats who contend the wealthy Romneys are out of touch with many women who raise children while they try to hold down jobs and struggle to make ends meet.

“On Mother’s Day, Mitt always brings me lilacs, a tradition he started the year I became a mother,” she wrote in USA Today.

The Restore Our Future SuperPAC group that supports Romney released a video accusing Obama supporters of denigrating Ann Romney for being a stay-at-home mom.

(Additional reporting by Sam Youngman in Charlotte; Editing by Stacey Joyce)

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Romney battles to get back on economic message

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:28 pm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Likely Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney battled to get back on his economic message on Friday after being sidetracked by a debate over gay rights and a reported bullying incident from 1965.

Romney’s drive to keep the focus on President Barack Obama‘s handling of the fragile U.S. economy took a back seat this week when Obama declared his support for same-sex marriage, a move that energized his liberal base and gave the Democratic incumbent a splash of news coverage.

Obama’s decision on gay marriage, after resisting the step for two years, contributed to a big surge in fund-raising for his campaign. Obama hauled in $ 15 million at a single, star-studded event in Los Angeles where he played basketball on Friday with stars George Clooney and Tobey Maguire.

Far from Hollywood, Romney visited North Carolina, a state that will be central in determining whether he can defeat Obama in the November 6 election.

Romney skirted the same-sex issue in a visit to Charlotte and stuck to the economy, saying Obama represents “old-school liberals” who want to continue to borrow money from countries like China in order to spend it recklessly in Washington.

“This recovery’s been the slowest, most tepid since Hoover,” said Romney in a reference to Depression-era President Herbert Hoover from the 1930s.

Romney wants to avoid making same-sex marriage a major focus of the campaign because Obama is much more vulnerable on the economy. Polls show a growing number of Americans favor gay marriage, but the slow economic recovery is by far their major concern.

“There will come a day when Romney will need to debate Obama on stage, but we don’t need to have that debate now,” a Romney adviser said. “We want that debate to be about economy and jobs. And number two, we believe the net results of this will be to our benefit.”

A new Gallup survey said 60 percent of Americans reported that Obama’s support for same-sex marriage will make no difference to their vote. Twenty-six percent said it would make them less likely to vote for him.

BULLYING ALLEGATION LINGERS

In North Carolina, a crowd of about 600 at the Charlotte Pipe and Foundry Company received Romney enthusiastically, booing almost every mention of Obama or his economic policies and cheering Romney’s pledge to “take America back.”

As Romney spoke in North Carolina, Obama touted mortgage relief in Nevada, another battleground state.

With Romney breaking no new ground on the economy, he could not escape questions in North Carolina about allegations of bullying a student in high school who was believed to be gay.

“If anybody was offended, I apologize for that,” Romney told Charlotte’s WSOC-TV when asked about a Washington Post story about the incident at the prestigious Cranbrook School in Michigan. Romney was said to have clipped off the bleached blond hair of a classmate who had been tackled and pinned down by Romney’s friends.

The student, John Lauber, was later presumed to be gay.

Romney has been on the defensive about the episode, which he says he cannot precisely recall.

The former Massachusetts governor also will need to address gay rights when he speaks at the evangelical Liberty University on Saturday. He will allude to traditional marriage as “an enduring institution that deserves to be defended,” an aide said.

The Romney campaign has sought to use the candidate’s wife, Ann, to attract more support from women voters who favor Obama. She also has tried to make Romney, who can sometimes come across as stiff and robotic, more accessible.

Ann Romney wrote an opinion piece for USA Today and conducted a series of interviews in advance of Mother’s Day on Sunday.

Her status as a stay-at-home mother who raised five sons has been ridiculed by some Democrats who contend the wealthy Romneys are out of touch with many women who raise children while they try to hold down jobs and struggle to make ends meet.

“On Mother’s Day, Mitt always brings me lilacs, a tradition he started the year I became a mother,” she wrote in USA Today.

The Restore Our Future SuperPAC group that supports Romney released a video accusing Obama supporters of denigrating Ann Romney for being a stay-at-home mom.

(Additional reporting by Sam Youngman in Charlotte; Editing by Stacey Joyce)

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Pound to Euro, US Dollar exchange rate: The Pound rallied to the strongest level against the Euro since November 2008

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:28 pm

Sterling / Euro and US Dollar exchange rates

The Pound rallied to the strongest level against the Euro since November 2008 yesterday, while the UK currency also made gains versus the majority of the 16 most actively traded currencies, after the Bank of England elected not to increase quantitative easing this month, despite the UK economy suffering a double-dip recession.

UK government bonds fell as policy makers maintained asset purchases at £325 billion, while keeping the interest rate on hold at 0.5%. There was some speculation that the Central Bank could react to the recent growth figures by increasing stimulus measures to support the economy. That still remains a possibility if the recession is deeper than first anticipated but the Pound gained some relief following the announcement.

The UK currency has weakened against the higher-yielding currencies, amid a general improvement in global risk appetite. UK stocks advanced yesterday with the benchmark FTSE 100 Index up for the first time in three days, which following an earlier rise in Asian stocks. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars both bounced back from their recent lows against the Pound but with concerns in Europe far from easing, it’s unlikely that the injection of confidence will last.

The latest UK manufacturing data recorded a rebound of 0.9% for March following a revised 1.1% decline for the previous month. The report will fuel optimism that the decline in economic growth during the first quarter will be revised higher over the coming weeks. The latest NIESR GDP growth estimate remained very subdued, however, with a reading of 0.1% for April following a revised 0.2% decline the previous month.

The data largely paled into insignificance through the day, as external factors continued to dominate. There was still evidence of defensive demand for the Pound as an alternative to the Euro, which protected Sterling from losses. The UK currency is likely to continue the upward swing against the Euro, while the political and economic uncertainties in the Euro-zone escalate.

Euro / US Dollar

The Euro remained under the significant 1.30 level against the U.S Dollar yesterday, as markets lacked the impetus to break out from narrow ranges. After failing to form a government, the SYRIZA coalition in Greece handed the baton over to Pasok who came third in the election last week. That just gives some indication over the political circus engulfing the nation and there is doubt whether any semblance of credible government can be formed.

There is still the obstacle that Greece does want to stay in the Euro, but not maintain the austerity program. ‘Have your cake and eat it’ springs to mind but the IMF led Troika will be reluctant to release financial aid to Greece if they don’t follow through on their commitment to austerity. Actions of the German government and the IMF will continue to be watched closely in the short-term.

In the U.S, the latest weekly jobless claims recorded a modest decline, which maintained a sense of relief surrounding labour market conditions. The latest U.S trade account recorded a sharp increase in the deficit to $ 51.8 billion, from a revised $ 45.4 billion previously. There is optimism that consumer spending will remain firm, but the impact of the deficit is likely to trigger a downward revision to the U.S first quarter growth estimates.

Data Released Today

U.K 09:30 – Producer Price Index (April)

EU 10:00 – European Commission Spring Forecasts

U.S 13:30 – Producer Price Index (April)

U.S 14:55 – Michigan Sentiment Survey (May Prelim)

Related posts:

  1. The Pound rallied towards the strongest level in two weeks
  2. Pound Sterling, the Euro and US Dollar exchange rate news – The Pound rallied towards the highest level in six weeks against the Euro
  3. Daily Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Forecast and News – Sterling rallied to the highest level against the U.S Dollar in 13-months
  4. The Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate rallied back up to 1.316
  5. The Pound rallied from the lowest level in two weeks versus the Euro


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Lunatic idea to invest in FDs instead of stocks: Damani

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:28 pm

When the going gets tough, the tough gets going, says Ramesh Damani. And the best way to describe the current equity market situation in India is tough.

The past year saw the Nifty touch 5,700 last July, but we also saw the painful crash to the lows of 4,500. Over 11% has been lost on the indices, however, Damani is bullish on India over the long term. “Cheap equity prices and good news don’t go hand in hand, but equities will create wealth over the long term,” he says on CNBC-TV18’s special show Investor Camp.

He advices investors to look for great businesses, because those are the ones which will generate free cash flow. He further adds that investors looking to beat inflation should not invest in fixed deposits. “Dividend yield on equities often meets inflation,” he said.

Damani prefers buying individual stocks rather than buying an index, and his preferred bets are media stocks. “Digitisation, TRAI regulations and corporate interest will boost media stocks,” he explains. He is also positive on Infosys , saying that the IT major will come out of its current tough phase.

On the flip side, he believes that government inaction is hurting aviation and telecom stocks in the country. He is also pessimistic about infrastructure names as he believes the current tight cash flow scenario will make it difficult to make money in infra names. “I am not particularly enthusiastic about gold return either post its recent run-up,” he added.

Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Do you think it will happen this year, the turn or do you think it will frustrate people longer?

A: To honour Srinagar first, I am looking at Kashmiri proverbs. I am going to butcher one for the Kashmiris here, “Ati: sha:h ti Ati: gada:h”. It means – a king for a moment, and a beggar soon after. The reverse is also true. If you are a beggar, you can also be a king. That’s the way markets are. Fortunes change very quickly in the financial market.

I remember the period 2002-03 when there was so much pessimism in India after the technology boom, but that resulted in one of the greatest bull markets we have ever known in this country. The index went from 3,000 to 18,000; it’s part and parcel of this market.

I hear all these people who tell me – I want to be safe in fixed deposits, in interest bearing instruments, I want to be in bonds and I am here to tell you it’s a loony idea. With inflation at 10%, we are getting 8% pre-tax, so you are not going anywhere.

The second big problem with investors is they expect market returns to be linear. Please understand, market returns are not linear. You want the market to go up 20% a year and we all will be very happy about it. What I am trying to tell you is that maybe, in three years, the market will give you negative 30% returns. In the fourth year, it would give you positive 80% returns, so it will make up for all of that.

Market returns are never linear. We want them to be linear but, they are never linear. They are sporadic. There will be good times and there will be bad times. It was a bad time for the tourism industry here, a few years back. But now, all the hotels are full. Similarly, there would be good times in the stock market too. It is in the nature of the business.

Good times will return. I am not sure if it will return in the next three months or six months, maybe it will be 2014. But, if you are young, it’s a lunatic idea to keep your money only in fixed deposits. You will never be wealthy.

Q: What do you think will trigger this turnaround? Do you think the same problems which have dogged us over the last many years will turn or something external will provide the stimulus?

A: There is a great saying in the market that you can get cheap equity prices or you can get good news. You won’t get both at the same time. If the news is good, if the industrial production is up, if the rupee was strengthening, if there was good policy action taking place, equities won’t be cheap, equities will be costly.

In some sense, it’s a perverse logic that because the news is so bad you are getting great bargains in the stock market and that’s always true. I am not sure if it will turn around, but I know the kind of bad news that has been hitting the markets. It’s time to buy. It’s not a time to sell.

I am not saying that you will make money in three months or six months, maybe not even in a year. The Dow didn’t go anywhere for 10 years. But, as retail investors, you don’t have to worry about the aggregates. You can pick stocks. You can pick businesses that will do well.

In this doom and gloom, Hindustan Lever is at an all-time high. VST is at an all-time high. ITC is at an all-time high. These are all companies you know. Titan is at an all-time high. So, go ahead and buy some stocks. Stay invested. The dividend itself pays for what you get in a bank deposit.

I don’t know if it will turn in 2014 or not, but I am very sure about that. You are going to be ahead if you invest wise in equities than if you invest in fixed deposits.

Q: Would you still stay with these consumer stories, because that’s the only game which has worked over the last couple of years?

A: They are not cheap. So, would I stay with them? I bought them at a lower price and it’s easy for me to say they look good. There are lots of other sectors available in the market that looks promising, two-three-five years down the road.

To give you examples, I have been suggesting media stocks for a while. Just look at the transformation that has taken place in the industry itself. You have had a Cable Digitization Bill being passed. You have had huge amount of corporate interest coming into the media sector. You have the new TRAI regulations which are very favorable, generally for the industry being passed.

I think, over time, these companies will start doing well. Right now they are not reflected in the price. The rural consumption for example in India – we had a good monsoon last year. You have a good monsoon again this year. A lot of people who go to rural India talking about a great boom going on in those areas are sell outs. So, look at rural housing companies. Look at rural building material companies. They will all tend to do well.

There is a basket. I have always picked stocks rather than an index or an aggregate. My advice to all of you is, pick a business that you trust. Something that you understand and believe in. You will be much better off than just blindly going by an average.

  

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Fresh China data raise growth fears

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:26 pm

Last updated:
May 11, 2012 11:16 am

Chinese Economy news headlines from the Financial Times

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Fresh China data raise growth fears

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:26 pm

Last updated:
May 11, 2012 11:16 am

Chinese Economy news headlines from the Financial Times

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Nifty to breach 4900; sell on intraday breakdowns: Sukhani

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:23 pm

It has been a steady downwards trend for the Nifty throughout this week and Sudarshan Sukhani, s2analytics.com sees the market closing the week on a lower note .

He expects Nifty to breach 4,900 levels today. “If it is not done today, then it may certainly happen in the next week,” he added.

The bias for the market is on the downside, so he suggests selling on small intraday breakdowns and on rallies.

Below is the edited transcript of Sukhani’s interview with CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: It has been a steady trend for the Nifty downwards through this week, how do you think we will close up the week? What kind of targets are you setting on the downside now for the Nifty?

A: We will close up lower and today should be a down day. The markets do what they do, but I would assume that 4,900 could be breached today. This is a downtrend, the rallies are weak, the downtrend gets initiated intraday.

I am not saying this market will not go up, but we need some signs, those signs are not visible so we would go with their existing trend and 4,900 should be breached. If it is not done today, then it may certainly happen in the next week. The bias is on the downside, the idea is to sell on small breakdowns intraday and sell on rallies.

Q: In you long list of sells today, you have infrastructure, IVRCL ?

A: IVRCL was a disaster. It went up on news and it has given up all the gains. Not only that, its distribution patterns are now visible. The sense is that it is not only a target of Rs 46 that we are going to see although I don’t know where it will go down to. So it is a short sell and as a stock one can take a positional trade. I would expect yesterday’s big decline to see lot of follow through today. So, on any small rally, any small breakdown intraday, it is an intraday trade also.

This is actually a lesson that markets don’t simply go up. Infrastructure fell, then it rallied and there was a sense that we are back to the good old times, but that doesn’t happen, it takes months and years for such sectors to consolidate, build bases.

Q: What about Orchid Chemical from pharmaceuticals, you are bearish on that as well?

A: Yes. Again so many stocks are doing it; first they made distribution pattern, now they are in the verge of significant support breakdowns. Orchid has support at Rs 165, repeatedly over the last four months; it has come to Rs 165 and bounced back for whatever reason. It is now threatening to break that. When a significant support level is broken, with a pattern of lower tops and lower highs in any case in place, that is a message that this stock is going down much lower. I have a target of Rs 150 for this but that is not the final target, if we see a breakdown like many other midcaps, we will see much lower levels.

Q: BEML has got crunched down this last fortnight or so but that is the one you would buy today?

A: I thought I will, then BEML figured prominently in the newspapers. But the chart suggests that after all that crunching down, all that disaster, BEML is in a trading range for the last about ten days. Maybe it is ready for a relief rally; maybe it is ready for a significant bounce. This needs to be bought only when it first starts showing signs of intraday strength. If it falls 2%, we don’t buy it. It needs to go up a little to give that conviction that something is going on here on the better side, on the upside.

Q: How about something like an Alstom Projects ?

A: It rallied, broke out above a resistance level and I was one of those who said this is now a buy. But it simply collapsed. Alstom is now, again threatening to break below that Rs 345-340 level at which point, it starts going to new lows. Just as we have talked about new highs being bullish; the new lows, even in a short time span, are very bearish. Rs 345 is the level below which it starts a cascading decline and that is not good news. It is not the only chart that is showing that. So either we find sudden support coming at current levels amongst all midcaps together or we are going to see these breakdowns one-by-one.

Q: What about Jindal Steel and Power Limited ( JSPL ) that is another bad looking chart?

A: Yes, it has already cracked down. It didn’t even make an effort to hold on and see if it could make a support line. It is just falling and now it is at new lows for this bear market. JSPL was in a bear market for some time, it didn’t go up and that is bad news. It suggests that Rs 425 is an intraday short-term target but I don’t think even Rs 400 is going to be held on to it. We just have to look at the chart of these midcaps and some of these largecap companies to start worrying, exactly what is the market telling us, why are all these standing at levels below which there is nothing to hold them.

Q: But you continue to like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)?

A: I think so. If by some chance, the markets begin a rally today, I would immediately look at TCS and consider going long in it. That is one stock that has confounded all pessimists. At least I thought it will come down to Rs 900, it didn’t do. It is an excellent opportunity to go long on any signs of market revival, intraday also.

  

Moneycontrol Technicals

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Posted by on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:23 pm.
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German Finance Minister: May consider growth measures for Greece

Posted on Saturday, May 12, 2012 - 12:23 pm

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany is willing to consider additional measures to promote growth in Greece but the struggling economy must still carry out the agreed reforms, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with Welt am Sonntag weekly.

“If the Greeks have an idea of what we could do, in addition, to promote growth, we can always talk and think about this,” Schaeuble was quoted as saying. “But ultimately it is about making Greece competitive again, allowing the economy to grow and opening the path to the financial markets again.”

“That requires the agreed, fundamental reforms being carried out, otherwise the country has no prospects.”

Germany on Friday laid out its support for a European “growth pact” in an attempt to deflect criticism that its insistence on austerity has exacerbated Athens’ debt woes.

But it also told Greece that staying in the euro zone was its own choice and that it must not stray from austerity if it expects to get international cash.

“I can understand the Greeks well … they are suffering a lot,” said Schaeuble. “There is no comfortable path for Greece.”

“There is not a better solution. Greece must now show if it has the power to get the necessary majorities for this. I can only hope that those responsible in Greece will quickly see reason.”

Greece was plunged into turmoil after a general election boosted far-left and far-right groups, stripping mainstream parties, which back a painful EU/IMF bailout, of their parliamentary majority.

But Germany, the European Union’s paymaster, and the European Commission have repeatedly insisted that Greece must persevere with tax hikes and spending cuts in order to continue receiving funds under its EU-IMF 130 billion euro bailout.

Schaeuble said Germany did not want Greece to leave the euro zone but could not force the country to remain within the currency bloc either.

“Of course we do not want Greece to leave, that is quite clear and unambiguous. But .. we would be a strange government if we did not prepare ourselves for all thinkable scenarios, to then also be able to master them, including situations that would not be easy for Europe.”

(Writing By Sarah Marsh; Editing by Peter Cooney)

Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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