News with Tags "Gold"

Gold tumbles as Fed signals stimulus slowdown

Posted on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 13:23 pm

By Barbara Kollmeyer and Carla Mozee, MarketWatch

MADRID (MarketWatch) — Gold prices dropped sharply Thursday, stung after the Federal Reserve signaled it may reduce the amount of monetary stimulus it provides as early as this year.

Meanwhile, copper futures lost further ground after a weak reading for manufacturing activity in China this month.

Extending losses during Asian hours, August gold futures /quotes/zigman/6585799 GCQ3 -4.51%  tumbled $46.50, or 3.4%, to $1,327.40 an ounce in electronic trade. Futures prices turned lower earlier Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters that the central bank’s purchases of government bonds may be scaled back as early as this year, if economic activity improves in line with its forecasts.

The central bank is currently buying $85 billion a month of bonds in an effort to encourage economic growth. The central bank’s bond-buying program has helped bolster U.S. equity prices, and aggressive monetary easing in recent years has been credited for helping gold prices rally.

The “fundamentals look a little better to us, in particular the housing sector, which has been a drag on growth since the [financial] crisis, is now obviously a support to growth,” Bernanke said during a press conference after the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

But if the economy “were really as strong as the messaging they’re sending, why not say, ‘We’re going to trim [monthly bond buying] back to $45 billion or trim this back to $60 billion?,” asked Scott Carter, chief executive of Lear Capital, a precious-metals retailer based in Los Angeles.

Bad news for bond ETFs and gold

Gold traders sold, even ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement, while some bond ETFs got a one-two punch.

“We’re not getting any of that” from the Fed or from Bernanke, who, Carter said in a telephone interview, continued to deliver a “double message” to the markets on Wednesday.

U.S. equities tumbled after the Fed update, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA -1.35%  losing 206 points to end at 15,112.19. U.S. stock futures pointed to moderate losses for Thursday’s session.

The U.S. dollar /quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY +0.72%  , however, climbed in the wake of Bernanke’s comments, a negative development for gold as a stronger dollar can make gold and other dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to those using other currencies.

Before the Fed’s announcement, gold prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled higher by $7.10, or 0.5%, at $1,374 an ounce.

In the short term, Carter expects to see continued softening of gold prices, with technical resistance around $1,300 to $1,325 an ounce.

“We’ve got to sort through what the real economy is doing versus what the Fed is doing, and that will play itself out between now and the end of the year,” he said.

But looking out 12 to 36 months, “the story line is strong for gold and silver,” as debt continues to escalate worldwide, and as Europe and Japan grapple with their own economic issues, said Carter.

Even if the Fed were to cut bond purchases by half, “that’s still a lot of liquidity that’s being pumped into the market,” he said.

Copper moves lower

Elsewhere Thursday, copper prices for July delivery /quotes/zigman/678445 HGN3 -1.86%  fell 5 cents, or 1.6%, to $3.09 a pound in electronic trade, with the industrial metal extending losses after HSBC’s China manufacturing survey showed activity was slowing in June.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a nine-month low of 48.3, down from May’s final reading of 49.2. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

July silver /quotes/zigman/652548 SIN3 -6.42%  extended losses as well, down $1.04, or nearly 5%, to $20.57 an ounce, and July platinum /quotes/zigman/9544538 PLN3 -1.50%  slumped $13.70, or 1%, to $1,410.20 an ounce.

September palladium /quotes/zigman/10469735 PAU3 -1.49%   lost $13.70, or 1%, to $689 an ounce. The contract on Wednesday closed Nymex floor trading below $700 an ounce for the first time since May 8, according to FactSet data.

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Posted by on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 13:23 pm.
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Gold falls to 2-month lows on stimulus outlook

Posted on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 09:29 am

SINGAPORE: Gold fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday to its lowest level since a 15 percent plunge in mid-April, after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of bond purchases later this year.

A scale-back of the $85 billion monthly asset purchases is likely to weaken support for gold prices, already down about 20 percent this year due to rapid outflows from exchange-traded funds and slowing demand in top consumers, India and China.

"I wouldn't be in a rush to say it's the end of gold," said Amber MacKinnon, an analyst at Nomura Securities in Sydney. "This is definitely a big turning point. But though we have seen some reasonable amount of stability in the U.S. economy, there is still a long way to run."

"Early next year will be pretty telling in terms of economic data. We'll have to see how unemployment reacts to any scale-back in bond purchases."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the central bank will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year if the U.S. economy continued to show strength.

Until recently, gold - seen as a hedge against inflation - had gained as the global economy took a hit and central banks acted to boost their economies. Gold touched an all-time high of $1,920.30 in 2011.

Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,346.61 an ounce by 0340 GMT, down more than 3 percent for the week. It touched $1,338.84 earlier in the session - not far off the lows in mid-April when gold fell the most in 30 years.

U.S. gold fell over 2 percent, or $28, to $1345.8. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell below 1,000 tonnes on Wednesday for the first time in 4 years.

"With the negative sentiment that we have in gold currently, we really do need to see a significant amount of physical buying in order to stabilize the market - which we are not seeing," said Mark Keenan, cross-commodity research strategist at Societe Generale in Singapore.

SocGen lowered its forecast for gold earlier this week, saying prices will fall to $1,200 an ounce by the end of the year, mainly due to the Fed's expected pullback in bond buying.

Demand in India has fallen off since the government hiked the import duty on bullion. China demand has slowed from peak levels seen earlier in the year.

China's factory activity weakened to a 9-month low in June as demand faltered, a preliminary survey showed, heightening risks that a second quarter slowdown could be sharper than expected.

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Posted by on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 09:29 am.
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Gold trades above 3-week low as Fed meeting nears end

Posted on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 03:30 am

LONDON/SINGAPORE: Gold traded above the lowest price in more than three weeks in New York before the US Federal Reserve concludes a policy meeting that may indicate when the central bank will reduce stimulus.

The US Dollar Index, a measure against six major currencies, and global equities were little changed before the Fed ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank currently buys $85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage debt. Fed Chairman Ben S Bernanke said last month the pace of monthly purchases could be reduced if the employment outlook shows sustained improvement.

"Any signs of improvement in growth expectations will further fuel uncertainty about the Fed's asset purchase programme," Mumbai-based Kotak Commodity Services said on Wednesday in a report. "Any sign of curtailment in asset purchases will be negative for gold, however it has been factored in to some extent."


Gold for August delivery added 0.3% to $1,371.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Prices rose 0.4% and fell 0.2% on Wednesday after reaching $1,360.20 on Tuesday, the lowest since May 23.

Futures trading volume was 49% below the average in the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gold for immediate delivery in London rose 0.4% to $1,372.70.

Holdings in exchange-traded products fell 1.6 tonne to 2,114.6 tonne on Tuesday, the lowest since March 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Assets are down 20% in 2013 after climbing every year since the first product was listed in 2003.

Prices slid 18% this year as an improving US economy increased speculation the Fed may taper quantitative-easing measures that helped bullion cap a 12-year bull run in 2012.

Newcrest Mining, Australia's largest gold producer, said this month it will write down the value of its assets by as much as A$6 billion ($5.7 billion) after the slump in prices.

"Gold remains trapped in a range as no one wants to take a stand before the end of the Fed meeting," said Xiang Nan, an analyst at CITIC Securities Futures. "Investors will be watching closely what the Fed has to say with regards to monetary stimulus."

Silver for July delivery lost 0.2% to $21.63 an ounce in New York. Platinum for July delivery was little changed at $1,441 an ounce, after falling to $1,425.10 on Tuesday, the lowest since April 24. Palladium was little changed at $708.60 an ounce.

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Posted by on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 03:30 am.
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Gold hits 1-month low on Bernanke’s reduced stimulus talk

Posted on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 01:27 am

NEW YORK/LONDON: Gold fell to a one-month low on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve chairman said he expects to slow the pace of the central bank's bond purchases later this year and bring them to a halt around mid-2014.

After trading higher most of the session, bullion prices tumbled after the Fed sharply lowered its forecast for inflation in a statement released at the end of its two-day policy meeting.

The precious metal fell further after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a later press conference on the Fed's decision that "The committee currently anticipates that it will be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year."

Bernanke said that the Fed will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year if the Fed's economic forecasts are correct.

Gold fell as global markets were rattled by the Fed chief's comment, with US equities falling around 1 per cent and Treasuries bond yields, seen as US short-term interest rates, rising sharply and the dollar index up 1 per cent.

"Bernanke is talking about pulling away stimulus, and that's not really what the market wants to hear. The more stimulus there is, the more powerful the inflationary case for gold," said Sean McGillivray, head of asset allocation at Great Pacific Wealth Management.

Spot gold was down 1.3 per cent to $1,349.86 an ounce by 3:49 p.m. EDT (1949 GMT), having hit $1,348.99, its lowest price since May 20.

Prior to the Fed announcement, US Comex gold futures for August delivery settled up $7.10 an ounce at $1,374. Trading volume was at around 125,000 lots versus its 30-day daily average of 215,000, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Since Bernanke said last month the bank could scale back its stimulus measures, gold prices have fallen in tandem with the S&P 500.

McGillivray, however, said gold might still benefit from Fed stimulus in the near term.

"I don't think the country can stop buying bonds. The economy is still fragile and the cost of capital will increase so substantially as you are seeing in bonds right now," he said.

The yield on benchmark US Treasury notes rose to fresh 14-month high on Wednesday after Bernanke's remarks.

INFLATION GAUGE LOWERED

In a statement, the Fed's policy-setting panel offered a more upbeat assessment of the risks facing the economy than they had after they last met in May.

In a sharp downgrade, the Fed forecast the PCE price index, its preferred gauge of the price pressures facing consumers, would rise just 0.8 to 1.2 per cent this year. However, it saw inflation heading back to 1.4 to 2.0 per cent in 2014 and 1.6 to 2.0 per cent in 2015.

"You are looking at continued slow growth but no inflation and no panic on the horizon, that makes gold less attractive and ultimately makes stocks more attractive," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.6 per cent at $21.30 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.7 per cent to $1,415.49 an ounce and palladium fell 2.2 per cent to $692.22 an ounce.

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Posted by on Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 01:27 am.
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Gold slides on weak demand, global uncertainty

Posted on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 18:35 pm

MUMBAI: Gold prices retreated at the domestic bullion market today due to reduced stockists as well as investment buying amid bearish global sentiment.

On the other hand, silver firmed up further on steady industrial support.

Standard gold of 99.5 per cent purity shed Rs 100 to conclude at Rs 27,925 per 10 gm from Tuesday's closing level of Rs 28,025.

Pure gold of 99.9 per cent purity also fell by a similar margin to end at Rs 28,070 per 10 gm from Rs 28,170.

Silver ready (.999 fineness), however edged higher by Rs 50 to finish at Rs 45,050 per kg compared to Rs 45,000 yesterday.

On the global front, yellow-metal traded slightly higher amid caution ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meet outcome later today.

Spot gold was bid up at USD 1,368 an ounce in early European trade.

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Posted by on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 18:35 pm.
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Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Posted on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 15:46 pm

Crude oil and gold prices are likely to rise if the Federal Reserve pours cold water on expectations of a near-term reduction in the size of QE asset purchases.

Talking Points

  • Fed Policy Announcement in Focus as Traders Await “Taper” Guidance
  • Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades Stimulus Reduction Risk

The Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement is in focus. Traders are looking to the outing as a defining moment when the FOMC unveils critical guidance on the timing of a reduction in QE3 asset purchases and the strategy to be used to execute it.

Ben Bernanke and company have surely taken note of the uneasy mood around financial markets associated with a possible near-term stimulus cutback. In fact, central bank officials have floated the idea of tapering QE in commentary over recent weeks, suggesting they may have been deliberately stress-testing investors’ likely response to such an outcome.

With that in mind, today’s outing may be used as an opportunity to assuage fears of a rush to remove policy support. Central themes could include the acute data-dependence of the current policy framework, whereby the size of QE can be adjusted in either direction given the still-fragile labor market as well as a recent slide in priced-in inflation expectations. Rhetoric striking a clear contrast between reducing asset purchases and outright tightening may also feature prominently.

On balance, an FOMC outing that is perceived as broadly dovish is likely to boost risk appetite, offering support cycle-sensitive commodities including crude oil and copper. In the precious metals space, gold and silvermay likewise find support as the US Dollar declinesagainst most of its G10 FX counterparts. Indeed, most of the greenback’s top pairings have been primarily driven by relative policy expectations in recent months.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis (WTI)- Prices cleared falling trend line set from late January and the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 97.09, exposing the 61.8% level at 98.47. A further push above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 100.18. The 97.09 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the trend line (now at 96.56) anew.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Downgrades_QE_Taper_Risk_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Gold Technical Analysis (Spot)- Prices edged past support at a rising trend line set from mid-April to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1366.43. A break below that exposes the 50% level at 1348.74. A move back above trend line support-turned-resistance (now at 1374.70) eyes a downward sloping barrier at 1395.72.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Downgrades_QE_Taper_Risk_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Silver Technical Analysis (Spot)- Prices took out support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (22.03) to expose the 50% level at 21.17. A further push beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 20.31. Alternatively, a move back above 22.03 aims for the 23.6% expansion at 23.10.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Downgrades_QE_Taper_Risk_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Copper Technical Analysis (COMEX E-Mini)- Prices broke support at 3.241, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now target the 38.2% level at 3.132, with a further push beneath that eyeing the 50% level at 3.044. Alternatively, a reversal back above 3.241 aims for the May 8 highat 3.398.

Commodities_Oil_Gold_to_Rise_if_FOMC_Downgrades_QE_Taper_Risk_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil, Gold to Rise if FOMC Downgrades QE Taper Risk

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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Posted by on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 15:46 pm.
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Gold futures edge lower, tracking global markets

Posted on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 15:36 pm

Indian gold futures edged lower on Wednesday tracking cues from a weak overseas market and as traders eye the US Federal Reserve for direction.

* Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could scale back its USD85 billion monthly bond purchases if the US economy strengthens, but a lack of clarity on the timing has unsettled markets. A policy statement from the central bank will be released on Wednesday after its meeting.


* At 1:40 p.m., the most-actively traded gold for August delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.18 percent lower at 27,915 rupees per 10 grams.


* Silver for July delivery on the MCX was 0.50 percent lower at 43,822 rupees per kilogram.


* In the overseas market, gold slipped for a third straight session as a rally in stocks and investor caution over the Federal Reserve curbing its stimulus programme sapped support for bullion.


* In the physical market, demand remained weak after the government raised import duty by a third to 8 percent, following a ban on consignment imports by the central bank.


* "There is no much demand..." said Suresh Jain, proprietor, SJ Jain Jewellers in Mumbai, adding that sales could pick up from August.


* The festival and wedding season has ended and will re-start in August.


* The country's gold imports fell from an average of USD135 million in the first half of May to USD36 million in the second half, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said.


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Posted by on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 15:36 pm.
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Gold prices fall Rs 80 on slackened demand

Posted on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 14:57 pm

NEW DELHI: Gold prices fell by Rs 80 to Rs 28,400 per ten grams here today due to slackened demand amid a weak global trend.

On the other hand, silver ready ruled flat at Rs 44,600 per kg, while weekly-based delivery shed Rs 80 to Rs 43,780 per kg on lack of speculators' buying support.

Sentiment in Gold turned bearish after it dropped to over three-week low in the global markets as investors await the conclusion of the US Federal Reserve's policy meet, traders said.

Also, sluggish demand due to off-marriage season put further pressure on gold.

Globally, gold in Singapore, which normally sets price trend on the domestic front, traded at $1,365.22 an ounce from $1,367.65 yesterday. Silver also fell 0.2 per cent to $21.63 an ounce.

On the domestic front, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity fell by Rs 80 each to Rs 28,400 and Rs 28,200 per ten grams, respectively.

The yellow metal had gained Rs 230 yesterday. Sovereign, however, held steady at Rs 24,400 per piece of eight gram.

Meanwhile, silver coins continued to be asked around previous level of Rs 80,000 for buying and Rs 81,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

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Posted by on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 14:57 pm.
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Metals Stocks: Gold extends losses as Bernanke update nears

Posted on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 11:56 am

By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell Wednesday, remaining near one-month lows as the market braced for possible indication by the U.S. Federal Reserve that it will pull back the pace of monetary stimulus.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke later Wednesday will address reporters following the conclusion of the central bank’s policy meeting.

Speculation that the Fed will reduce the size of its bond-buying program has kept gold prices under pressure, as the Fed’s bond purchases have been cited as aiding gold’s price rally in recent years.

Gold for August delivery /quotes/zigman/6585799 GCQ3 +0.09%  was down $2.10, or 0.6%, to $1,364.70 an ounce. Prices reached an intraday low of $1,364, levels that were last seen in mid-May, according to FactSet data.

Gold on Tuesday dropped $16.20, or 1.2%, as Fed officials began their two-day policy meeting.

Most analysts don’t expect the Fed on Wednesday to make an announcement about the pace of asset purchases, which are currently set at $85 billion a month and aimed at stimulating economic growth. But speculation the Fed will taper intensified last month when some Fed officials began voicing support for reducing the bond buys.

Fed officials appear unlikely to change monetary policy Wednesday, but “they will likely adjust their economic outlook, and that could give clues as to how fast and soon policy may change,” ISI head of fixed-income strategy Stan Shipley told clients Tuesday.

In other metals action Wednesday, July silver /quotes/zigman/652548 SIN3 -0.26%  lost 15 cents, or 0.7%, to $21.52 an ounce. Copper for July delivery /quotes/zigman/678445 HGN3 +0.32%   held steady at $3.15 a pound.

September palladium /quotes/zigman/10469735 PAU3 +0.49%  traded at $707.20 an ounce, down $1.15, or 0.2%, and July platinum /quotes/zigman/9544538 PLN3 0.00%  gave up $6.50, or 0.5%, to $1,433.60 an ounce.

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Posted by on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 11:56 am.
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Verizon’s Going to Canada, Ford Scores in Europe: Market Recap

Posted on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 04:22 am

Market Recap Main Image

U.S. stocks rose today, with the S&P 500 rising to its highest point in June as investors wait for news from the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting to decide whether to continue with stimulus efforts. Many investors seem to doubt that the central bank will cut stimulus anytime soon despite the improving economy, and are expecting the Fed to err on the side of caution when choosing to end the stimulus program.

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Gold: -1.19% to $1,366.50 per ounce  Oil: +0.47% to $97.85 per barrel  U.S. 10-Year: +0.51 to 2.18%

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Posted by on Wednesday, June 19, 2013 - 04:22 am.
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