FOREX-Euro, commodity currencies glimmer amid gloom

Posted on Wednesday, June 15, 2011 - 04:38 am


Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:38pm EDT

* Better-than-expected data helps lift risk sentiment

* Euro firmer, but Greece debt problems likely to limit
upside

* Commodity currencies also benefit from risk appetite

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, June 15 (Reuters) – The safe-haven Swiss franc and
yen were under broad pressure in Asia on Wednesday after U.S.
and Chinese data helped lift some of the gloom about the global
economy, bolstering risk appetite that saw strong gains for the
euro and commodity currencies.

The euro, which just on Friday hit a record low versus the
Swiss franc at under 1.2000, jumped to a high of 1.2254 francs
after U.S. retail sales fell less than forecast and
Chinese inflation was not as dire as some predictions.

The data also helped Wall Street post its biggest gains in
nearly two months, although traders said the out-sized market
moves probably reflected relief rather than outright optimism,
after a recent string of disappointing figures.

“While we are trying not be over excited about a single
above-expectations reading in the form of retail sales … we do
think the risk-reward balance is turning in favour of ‘good
news’ at least relative to expectations,” said Kit Juckes,
strategist at Societe Generale.

The common currency also climbed versus the dollar, but was
thwarted by resistance at around $1.4500 . Still, the
break above the 55-day moving average at around $1.4400 suggests
the euro could run a bit further in the very short term.

It was last at $1.4435 with immediate support seen at
$1.4418, the 38.2 percent retracement of the May 23-June 3
rally.

“However, this is unlikely to be the start of a resumed
risk-on trend since Greek issues remain unresolved,” BNP Paribas
strategists wrote in a note.

Indeed, at a meeting on Tuesday, euro zone ministers could
not agree on how private holders of Greek debt should share the
costs of a new bailout.

This means the discussions will continue on Sunday, before
the June 23-24 EU summit, where the block must forge a comprise
to avert financial disaster for Greece.

The U.S. government is also struggling with debt problems of
its own, and the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve warned it must
lift its borrowing limit or risk a potentially disastrous loss
of confidence.

Ben Bernanke said the United States could lose its coveted
AAA credit rating and the dollar’s special status as a reserve
currency could be damaged if there was no quick resolution to
the political battle over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit.

The dollar index , which tracks its performance
against a basket of major currencies, retreated from a two-week
high near 75.000 to last trade at 74.422.

Against the yen, the dollar bought 80.54 , still well
within the prevailing 79.50-81.00 yen range, where the pair
seemed to have stabilised after falling from the April peak
around 85.50.

Among the biggest beneficiaries of the improved risk
appetite are commodity currencies.

The Australian dollar briefly popped above $1.0700
for the first time in about a week, before losing a bit of
ground to last trade at $1.0683.

The Aussie faces trendline resistance at $1.0715, which
coincides with the 76.4 percent retracement of the June 3-13
fall. A break above will bring the June 3 high of $1.0775 into
view.

Against the yen, the Aussie climbed to 1-1/2 week highs
above 86.00 yen . It also jumped to a two-week high of
0.9056 Swiss francs .

(Additional reporting by FX analyst Krishna Kumar; Editing by
Wayne Cole)

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Posted by on Wednesday, June 15, 2011 - 04:38 am.
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